172
FXUS63 KFGF 101746
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST, SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
STRATUS IS VERY STUBBORN THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW CLOUD COVER EASTWARD, DID SOME TAF
AMENDMENTS KEEPING LOWER CEILINGS LONGER. ALSO ADDED SOME
FLURRIES TO THE GOING FORECAST, AS WE HAVE SEEN A FEW AT THE
OFFICE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
WEST EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE NOW OBSCURED BY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER ALL OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND IT
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO TELL THE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
HOPEFUL CLEARING THAT IS. WILL KEEP AREAS OF FOG AS STILL SOME
FOG FROM LANGDON TO COOPERSTOWN TO VALLEY CITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WELCOME TO NOVEMBER, WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER THAN
MODELS SUGGEST. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS MOVING INTO WESTERN MN
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY IN
E ND WITH A NW LIGHT WIND IN MN. FLOW AT THE SFC-850 MB LAYER
WHERE MOISTURE IS SHOULD TURN INCREASING SOUTHERLY TODAY AND
REACH 25-30 KTS MIDDAY AND AFTN AT 925 MB AND MORE SOUTHWEST AT
40 KTS AT 850 MB. THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT
COVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN FCST AREA GRADUALLY OUT AS WINDS
DRIER AIRMASS AT 850 MB SHOULD MIX MORE TOWARD THE SURFACE. BUT
WE SHALL SEE, AND HAVE SEEN WHERE LOW CLOUDS HOLD IN THESE
SITUATIONS. ALSO WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN 300 MB
MOISTURE IN WARM ADVECTION CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH TODAY. SO
REGARDLESS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER TODAY,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WHERE WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
REACH THE SURFACE. MOST AREAS INTO THE LOW-MID 30S TODAY WITH
NEAR 40 POSSIBLE DEVILS LAKE. ALSO THIS EARLY MORNING AREAS OF
FOG IS FORMING IN MORE AREAS ALONG THE LOW CLOUD, CLEAR
INTERFACE ROUGHLY FROM JAMESTOWN AREA NORTH THRU DEVILS LAKE,
LAKOTA, TO LANGDON. SO DID EXPAND FOG MENTION A BIT TO INCLUDE
MOST OF THE WEST FCST AREA.
500 MB SHORT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. COLD ADVECTION IS LIMITED SO NW WIND SHIFT AND
HOPEFULLY NO LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS UP A BIT MORE
OVER TODAY.
500 MB RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD
WITH WARMER TEMPS, PEAKING ON FRIDAY WITH 50S IN MOST AREAS.
500 MB PATTERN VIA ENSEMBLES FROM 00Z RUNS INDICATE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PATTERN BECOMING MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND
AND PERSISTING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THOUGH AT THIS TIME 500
M MB WAVES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEAR PROGRESSIVE, THIS WILL
INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS FAVOR RAIN AND AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS DONT LOOK SIGNIFICANT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KDVL. IFR WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY AT
KGFK, KTVF AND KBJI. WHERE IFR GIVES WAY, A LARGE CIRRUS DECK
SWINGING THROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY, ALBEIT VFR.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, BRINGING MVFR TO
KBJI. MVFR MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST, IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS,
BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO NO LOWER CEILINGS
WERE ADDED TO THE TAFS. LLWS IS FORECASTED OVERNIGHT, IMPACTING
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBJI. WINDS WILL CHANGE DIRECTION FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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