243
FXUS63 KFGF 101926
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
126 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS EVER SO SLOWLY ERODING AS A DRIER AIR
MASS ALOFT WORKS IN. OUR REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH THE DEEP TROUGH THAT IMPACTED US OVER
THE WEEKEND NOW OVER THE EASTERN US. TONIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL SWING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH. WHILE THE BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW IN CANADA OR EAST DEEPER INTO MN
WHERE BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING EXISTS, THERE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON
THE MN SIDE OF THE FA. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MINOR. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE,
DURATION BETWEEN WHEN IT OCCURS AND WHEN TEMPERATURES GET ABOVE
FREEZING WOULD BE SHORT, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.
THE BIGGER STORY OF THE NIGHT IS THE LACK OF A DIURNAL TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FLAT LINE AFTER DARK, THEN RAPIDLY
RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BREAK INTO
THE 40S AREA WIDE, WITH A FEW 50S IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. SIMILAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK, PEAKING ON
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY OF AROUND 60 DEGREES ARE
FORECASTED IN SOUTHEASTERN ND, STILL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS BUT
WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE, BUT TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN US SHOULD
LEAD TO STORMIER WEATHER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE QUESTION
IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IS IT ONE LARGER SYSTEM, OR SEVERAL
SMALLER SYSTEMS? WILL THE SYSTEM(S) BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, OR DOES IT STAY
WARMER? OVERALL, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN EVOLUTION
LEADS TO LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
IFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
KDVL. IFR WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT
KGFK, KTVF AND KBJI. WHERE IFR GIVES WAY, A LARGE CIRRUS DECK
SWINGING THROUGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CLOUDY, ALBEIT VFR.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY, BRINGING MVFR TO
KBJI. MVFR MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST, IMPACTING OTHER TERMINALS,
BUT THAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SO NO LOWER CEILINGS
WERE ADDED TO THE TAFS. LLWS IS FORECASTED OVERNIGHT, IMPACTING
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBJI. WINDS WILL CHANGE DIRECTION FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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