196
FXUS63 KFGF 110403
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1003 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST (NOW OVER THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN). GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT THOUGH BEFORE THE "LULL" OCCURS AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST THEN NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING/SUBSIDENCE
REGION OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS ARRIVED INTO OUR CWA AND
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST HAS BEEN CLEARING. A SUBSTANTIAL MID LEVEL
DRY LAYER REMAINS IN PLACE AND RETURNS (CURRENTLY EXITING TO
THE EAST) HAVE NOT BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIP REACHING THE
SURFACE.
THERE IS STILL A WEAK/SPOTTY PRECIPITATION SIGNAL
TUESDAY MORNING IN NORTH CENTRAL MN NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHALLOW SATURATED/STRATUS LAYER
WHICH "MAY" RESULT IN POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES IN THE 12-15Z
PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER BELOW THIS
STRATUS THAT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTUAL ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THAT TIME MAKES IT WORTH
MONITORING (VERY LOW FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
HIGH BASED RETURNS ON RADAR ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 10KFT CLOUD
LAYER. THIS IS IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF OF MID LEVEL LOW
(SHARPLY DEFINED PV HEIGHT ANOMALY APPARENT ON SATELLITE) MAY
RESULT IN VIRGA, HOWEVER SUBSTANTIAL SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER WOULD
LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE LINGERING IN TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH PERIOD GUSTS TO 40 MPH, BUT WINDS SHOULD START
A DOWNWARD TREND AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS (ALREADY NEAR OUR
NORTHWEST CWA) ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND GRADIENT WEAKENS.
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MAY TO SKY/WIND THIS EVENING TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS, OTHERWISE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..SYNOPSIS
LOTS OF CLOUD COVER IS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LOW LEVEL STRATUS EVER SO SLOWLY ERODING AS A
DRIER AIR MASS ALOFT WORKS IN. OUR REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH THE DEEP TROUGH THAT IMPACTED US
OVER THE WEEKEND NOW OVER THE EASTERN US. TONIGHT, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH IN CANADA WILL SWING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH. WHILE THE BETTER FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO
OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE LOW IN CANADA OR EAST DEEPER INTO MN
WHERE BETTER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING EXISTS, THERE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO GET A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON
THE MN SIDE OF THE FA. ANY IMPACTS FROM THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS
TO BE MINOR. IF THERE WERE TO BE ANY POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE, DURATION BETWEEN WHEN IT OCCURS AND WHEN TEMPERATURES
GET ABOVE FREEZING WOULD BE SHORT, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO
IMPACTS.
THE BIGGER STORY OF THE NIGHT IS THE LACK OF A DIURNAL TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FLAT LINE AFTER DARK, THEN RAPIDLY
RISE AFTER SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BREAK INTO
THE 40S AREA WIDE, WITH A FEW 50S IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. SIMILAR
VALUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK, PEAKING ON
FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY OF AROUND 60 DEGREES ARE
FORECASTED IN SOUTHEASTERN ND, STILL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS BUT
WARM BY NOVEMBER STANDARDS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ARRIVES OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE, BUT TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN US SHOULD
LEAD TO STORMIER WEATHER IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE QUESTION
IS HOW IT PLAYS OUT. IS IT ONE LARGER SYSTEM, OR SEVERAL
SMALLER SYSTEMS? WILL THE SYSTEM(S) BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, OR DOES IT STAY
WARMER? OVERALL, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN EVOLUTION
LEADS TO LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND, WITH
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY BEYOND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND, WITH VFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL IN NORTHWEST MN AT LEAST
THROUGH 15Z IN NORTHWEST MN. AFTER 15Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MVFR
STRATUS SPREADING OUT OF CANADA BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THIS STRATUS LAYER (1500-3000 FT AGL) WILL TRACK FROM
THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MN (NOT MAKING IT FARTHER WEST THAN
KTVF), AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY THE
EARLY EVENING.
A NORTHWEST ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN WIND SHEAR
(30-45KT) ACROSS EASTERN ND AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTH AND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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