666
FXUS63 KFGF 241821
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1221 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT, WITH AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS AND A
40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WARNING IMPACTS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
INTO THE WEEKEND AS PART OF A MORE ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SENTIMENTS IN PREVIOUS UPDATE REMAIN VALID. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL TURN MORE CLOUDY AS THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
CONTINUES. THIS WILL PROMOTE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN MINNESOTA.
REGARDING THE UPCOMING WINTER IMPACTS, CONSENSUS FROM LATEST
GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON AREA TO EXPERIENCE HIGHEST QPF/SNOW
THAT WILL DRIVE IMPACTS. THIS PAINTS A PICTURE RESIDING THE
SOUTHERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN, INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY,
AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
STILL EXPECTING AN INFLUENCE OF COMPACTION/MELTING TO OCCUR
SINCE SNOW MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THEY DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH MOST ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY IMPACTED BY COMPACTION/MELTING
OUTSIDE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES. THIS MAY LEAD TO A
SCENARIO WERE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT
OCCURING, ESPECIALLY ON NON-GRASSY SURFACES. THIS SCENARIO IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE US HIGHWAY
2 CORRIDOR, WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR
COMPACTION/MELTING TO SOME DEGREE.
HEAVIER SNOW RATES GREATER 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR WILL ALSO DRIVE
IMPACTS THROUGH REDUCED VISIBILITY TO QUARTER MILE, ESPECIALLY
AS THESE RATES COMBINE WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING
SNOW. ONCE SNOW RATES DIMINISH, LINGERING BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED TO WANE DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING BELOW 30 MPH (ALBEIT SOME GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING, SO NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE NEEDED IN THE
IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES ARE MILD, ON EITHER SIDE OF
30 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR ONE LAST WARM AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AREA WIDE, WARMEST IN WEST
CENTRAL MN WHERE A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS ARE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 422 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LOW, LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT
SLOWER THAN WHAT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THIS MORNING, WITH THE LOW
EXPECTED TO BECOME INGESTED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 TROUGH. THIS
WILL BE THE SOURCE OF WINTER IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, THERE
WILL BE A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA THAT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 40S,
WITH LOW 30S ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER, HIGHS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 DEGREES.
..WINTER STORM WATCH
THERE REMAINS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200, WHERE HEAVIER
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MORE PROBABLE. THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BETWEEN THE HWY 200 AND I-94 CORRIDORS,
WITH LOWER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. WSSI-P HAS INCREASED THE
PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE IMPACTS ACROSS THE SAME AREA, WITH ABOUT A
40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS. LOOKING AT THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL TOTALS, THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES ARE ROUGHLY 3-7
INCHES RESPECTIVELY, WITH A 10TH AND 90TH RANGE OF 2-9 INCHES.
FURTHER NORTH, THE GRADIENT OF EXPECTED SNOWFALL DROPS SHARPLY TO
THE NORTH OF HWY 200, WITH 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE VALUES OF 1-4
INCHES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EAST, WITH NORTH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS
EXIST.
..MUCH COLDER FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES BECOME MUCH COLDER FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS QUITE COLD HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW. UPPER FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY WITH STRONG
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ALONG CROSS-POLAR FLOW
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. AFTER 08Z A
WINTER SYSTEM MOVES WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION LOWERING
CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CATEGORIES, WHILE ALSO
REDUCING VISIBILITY 1SM OR LESS. SITES LIKE KDVL AND KFAR MAY
EXPERIENCE VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4SM FOR BRIEF PERIOD LATE
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES AND BLOWING SNOW - 40% CHANCE THIS OCCURS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL LINGER BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY.
IMPACTS FROM LOWERED CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL EXTEND
BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY AT KGFK, KFAR, KTVF, AND KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NDZ016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ001>003-006>009-013>017-022>024-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...CJ/RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
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