972
FXUS63 KFGF 260002
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
602 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY.
- FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING WINTER IMPACTS IN
MINNESOTA FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 INTO THE
EVENING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
LOW CHANCES OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE MAIN AREAS/BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF FARGO AND THE IMPROVING TREND THAT HAD
ALREADY STARTED IN NORTHEAST ND HAS ARRIVED IN BARNES/CASS
COUNTIES. THIS MATCHED THE TIMING OF THE EXPIRATION FOR THOSE
COUNTIES AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
IN OUR ND COUNTIES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THESE SNOW RATES
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH ARE LINGERING IN SE ND. WE
ARE STILL SEEING WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS/PLOWCAMS SHOWING NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW TRANSITIONS EAST. FOR NOW NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO HAZARD PRODUCTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND
AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
BEEN TRACKING THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT,OUR FA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SOME SMALL WAVES PASS THROUGH, ONE IN
PARTICULAR ON FRIDAY, SNOWFALL CHANCES AFTER TODAY SEEM VERY
LIMITED.
..WINTER STORM CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE TRI STATE AREA, TRACKING TO THE
EAST WITH TIME. AN AREA OF FRONTOGENSIS SITTING OVER SARGENT TO
WILKIN COUNTIES HAS BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH
PER HOUR, LEADING TO EXTREMELY POOR CONDITIONS PER REPORTS
RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY, BUT
WFO ABR RECENTLY RECEIVED A REPORT OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF VICTOR SD, WHICH IS JUST A MILE OR TWO SOUTH OF OUR FA
ALONG I29. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES
AT GWINNER AND WAHPETON. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL, STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO BRINGING IMPACTS, BY CREATING BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE, NOT CAA. CAA HAS NOT "CRASHED"
INTO OUR FA, RATHER ITS BEEN MORE OF A SLOW BUT STEADY
"SMOTHERING". IN TURN, WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG IN THIS FA
THEN AREAS TO OUR SOUTH IN SD. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SUBSIDING LATE THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON THE ONGOING IMPACTS, ACTIVE HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
THE MORNING UPDATE. ADVISORIES BEGIN DROPPING OFF AT 6 PM IN ND,
WITH THE FINAL EASTERN ADVISORY/WARNING ZONES EXPIRING AT
MIDNIGHT.
..COLD INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE AIRMASS DRUG IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COLDER
THEN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE TRUE "CRASH" OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS SAME TIME
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOVE OR MORE LIKELY BELOW
ZERO. AS WE RIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, AN OPEN WAVE WILL PUSH ALONG TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
THE EASTERN/NORTHERN EDGES OF IT NEAR OUR WESTERN FA BORDER.
WHERE EXACTLY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA SEES SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM, AS A MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WANT TO KEEP IT A BIT MORE TO OUR WEST, WHICH
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE WEST AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS ARE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST ND
AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN. LOWEST VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BANDING HAS SHIFTED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TAF SITES (KFAR AND KBJI) HOWEVER LINGERING VIS REDUCTIONS IN
THE IFR TO MVFR CATEGORIES SHOULD BE EXPECTED DUE TO LIGHTER
SNOW COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. FARTHER NORTH
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED, HOWEVER LARGER AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS LINGER. WHILE THERE MAY BE BRIEF BREAKS OR "HOLES"
WITHIN THIS STRATUS LAYER THEY SHOULD NOT RESULT IN
PROLONGED/PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THIS STRATUS BEGIN TO BREAK UP, BUT DUE TO THE
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW STREAMERS OR
"BANDS" OF MVFR STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP. STRONGEST WINDS
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THEY SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND GRADIENT STARTS TO RELAX, BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 12KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-
052-053.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ001>003-013>017-022-023-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ024-028-
031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029-
030-040.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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