264
FXUS63 KFGF 260551
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING WINTER IMPACTS IN
MINNESOTA FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
LOW CHANCES OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND IS NOW WELL EAST OF OUR CWA AND WITH
IT THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AND ORGANIZED ACCUMULATING SNOW.
THERE ARE STILL SOME POCKETS OF LIGHTER SNOW/FLURRIES BUT
IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. OF COURSE SLICK ROADS CONTINUE TO BE
REPORTED AND ANYONE TRAVELING SHOULD CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS AND
STATUS OF CLOSURES ON RELEVANT STATE DOT WEBSITES. I WENT AHEAD
AND EXPIRED THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN OUR MN
COUNTIES AS SCHEDULED (TOP OF THE HOUR AT 12AM).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION ZONE/AXIS OF 700 MB FRONTOGENSIS ON THE
NW QUADRANT OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST, AND
WITH IT THE MAIN PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS COMING TO AN END
WEST TO EAST. THERE ARE STILL AREAS OF LIGHTER SNOW FARTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST (MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS) AND SINCE THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN VIS IMPACTS HAVE
ALSO IMPROVED GREATLY. I WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED THE WARNINGS IN
THE SOUTHERN RRV EXPIRE AND TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE COUNTIES IN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN MN. I HELD ONTO THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY IN OUR EAST WHERE THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS STILL
LINGERING THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH THE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE IMPROVING, ROADS REMAIN
SLICK AND ROAD IMPACTS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE NIGHT.
ND/MN DOT ROAD CONDITION WEBSITES TRAVEL.DOT.ND.GOV AND
511MN.ORG SHOULD BE CHECKED FOR ROAD CONDITIONS/STATUS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 602 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE MAIN AREAS/BANDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTHEAST OF FARGO AND THE IMPROVING TREND THAT HAD
ALREADY STARTED IN NORTHEAST ND HAS ARRIVED IN BARNES/CASS
COUNTIES. THIS MATCHED THE TIMING OF THE EXPIRATION FOR THOSE
COUNTIES AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
IN OUR ND COUNTIES. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE THESE SNOW RATES
COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 45 MPH ARE LINGERING IN SE ND. WE
ARE STILL SEEING WEBCAMS/SURFACE OBS/PLOWCAMS SHOWING NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW TRANSITIONS EAST. FOR NOW NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO HAZARD PRODUCTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND
AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS
BEEN TRACKING THROUGH THE TRI STATE REGION TODAY. AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TONIGHT,OUR FA WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW, WHICH WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE SOME SMALL WAVES PASS THROUGH, ONE IN
PARTICULAR ON FRIDAY, SNOWFALL CHANCES AFTER TODAY SEEM VERY
LIMITED.
..WINTER STORM CONTINUES
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN
FALLING IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW IN THE TRI STATE AREA, TRACKING TO THE
EAST WITH TIME. AN AREA OF FRONTOGENSIS SITTING OVER SARGENT TO
WILKIN COUNTIES HAS BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH
PER HOUR, LEADING TO EXTREMELY POOR CONDITIONS PER REPORTS
RECEIVED AT THE OFFICE. SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY, BUT
WFO ABR RECENTLY RECEIVED A REPORT OF AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW
NORTH OF VICTOR SD, WHICH IS JUST A MILE OR TWO SOUTH OF OUR FA
ALONG I29. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES
AT GWINNER AND WAHPETON. OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY SNOWFALL, STRONG
WINDS ARE ALSO BRINGING IMPACTS, BY CREATING BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA. WINDS ARE BEING DRIVEN MAINLY BY THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE, NOT CAA. CAA HAS NOT "CRASHED"
INTO OUR FA, RATHER ITS BEEN MORE OF A SLOW BUT STEADY
"SMOTHERING". IN TURN, WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS STRONG IN THIS FA
THEN AREAS TO OUR SOUTH IN SD. HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 45 MPH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SUBSIDING LATE THIS
EVENING.
BASED ON THE ONGOING IMPACTS, ACTIVE HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED
FROM THE MORNING UPDATE. ADVISORIES BEGIN DROPPING OFF AT 6 PM
IN ND, WITH THE FINAL EASTERN ADVISORY/WARNING ZONES EXPIRING AT
MIDNIGHT.
..COLD INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE THE AIRMASS DRUG IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COLDER
THEN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE TRUE "CRASH" OF ARCTIC AIR
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE WEEKEND, WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS SAME TIME
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS JUST ABOVE OR MORE LIKELY BELOW
ZERO. AS WE RIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, AN OPEN WAVE WILL PUSH ALONG TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
THE EASTERN/NORTHERN EDGES OF IT NEAR OUR WESTERN FA BORDER.
WHERE EXACTLY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH OF THE AREA SEES SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM, AS A MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WANT TO KEEP IT A BIT MORE TO OUR WEST, WHICH
WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW TO THE WEST AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THERE ARE STILL LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD RESULTING IN BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE 1-6SM RANGE,
OTHERWISE THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS NOT EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN ND AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE TEMPORARY PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES (GAPS IN THE
STRATUS THAT WILL CARRY LOW PREDICTABILITY). WINDS ARE SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST (ABOVE 12KT) WITH GUSTS 20-30KT
UNTIL THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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