346
FXUS63 KFGF 260950
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUB-ADVISORY IMPACTS AND 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB UPPER LOW IS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 09Z AND MOVING
SLOWLY EAST WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TO OVER 30 KTS INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WE GO THRU THE MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
SLIDES EAST. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA
(BEMIDJI-WADENA SHOULD END NEAR 12Z). SO FOR TODAY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS MORE CLOUD COVER ISSUES. UPSTREAM SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN THE MVFR AVIATION FLIGHT CATEGORY
RANGE, BUT SOME HOLES ARE PRESENT. USED NBM/CONSHORT BLEND FOR
SKY TODAY WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT ALLOWS FOR A FEW
BREAKS. MAIN COLDER AIR IS STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST SO HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MID TO UPPER 20S.
COLDER AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL OOZE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND THERE IS A SLOW
CLEARING PROCESS. LOWS TONIGHT TEENS AND HIGHS THURSDAY LOW TO
MID 20S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT OVER
THE DEEPER SNOW COVER AS LOW TEMPERATURES COULD TANK. SEEING
SEVERAL AREAS OF NEAR ZERO DEGREE TEMPS IN NORTHWEST ND AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY AT 09Z.
THE NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE INTO WASHINGTON STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE THRU WYOMING FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW
FORMATION WITH THIS LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER WAVE, BUT AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NOTED AT 700 MB DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF SNOW
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO EASTERN SD FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND NBM ALL BRING THE FAR
NORTHEAST EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO CENTRAL AND SE ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN FRIDAY NIGHT. I WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE THE
700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH IN TIME
THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THIS EVENT AND SHIFT SNOW MORE OUT OF
FAR SE ND, BUT AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY 30 PCT CHANCE OF SUB-
ADVISORY IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND (SARGENT, RANSOM, RICHLAND
COUNTIES) AND 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS IN SAME AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS WAVE...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN PARTICULARLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS LIKELY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME AREAS. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS
REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THERE ARE STILL LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD RESULTING IN BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN THE 1-6SM RANGE,
OTHERWISE THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST
AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW IS NOT EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR STRATUS IS
LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN ND AND
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE TEMPORARY PERIODS OF IMPROVEMENT AT ALL SITES (GAPS IN THE
STRATUS THAT WILL CARRY LOW PREDICTABILITY). WINDS ARE SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST (ABOVE 12KT) WITH GUSTS 20-30KT
UNTIL THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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