492
FXUS63 KFGF 261225
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUB-ADVISORY IMPACTS AND 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
A FEW FLURRIES REMAIN IN WEST CENTRAL MN BUT THE MAIN FALLING
SNOW HAS MOVED OUT AS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS ALSO LOWERING IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN. SO ALL GOING ACCORDING TO
PLAN. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB UPPER LOW IS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT 09Z AND MOVING
SLOWLY EAST WITH SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE TO OVER 30 KTS INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WE GO THRU THE MORNING
AS THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
SLIDES EAST. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN FCST AREA
(BEMIDJI-WADENA SHOULD END NEAR 12Z). SO FOR TODAY FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS MORE CLOUD COVER ISSUES. UPSTREAM SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER IN THE MVFR AVIATION FLIGHT CATEGORY
RANGE, BUT SOME HOLES ARE PRESENT. USED NBM/CONSHORT BLEND FOR
SKY TODAY WHICH KEEPS IT MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT ALLOWS FOR A FEW
BREAKS. MAIN COLDER AIR IS STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST SO HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE MID TO UPPER 20S.
COLDER AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL OOZE EAST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO LIGHTEN AND THERE IS A SLOW
CLEARING PROCESS. LOWS TONIGHT TEENS AND HIGHS THURSDAY LOW TO
MID 20S. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT OVER
THE DEEPER SNOW COVER AS LOW TEMPERATURES COULD TANK. SEEING
SEVERAL AREAS OF NEAR ZERO DEGREE TEMPS IN NORTHWEST ND AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA CURRENTLY AT 09Z.
THE NEXT 500 MB SHORT WAVE TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE INTO WASHINGTON STATE THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST FROM THERE THRU WYOMING FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW
FORMATION WITH THIS LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE UPPER WAVE, BUT AN
AREA OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING NOTED AT 700 MB DUE TO WARM
ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF SNOW
FROM CENTRAL MONTANA ACROSS SOUTHWEST ND INTO EASTERN SD FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND NBM ALL BRING THE FAR
NORTHEAST EDGE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO CENTRAL AND SE ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN FRIDAY NIGHT. I WOULDNT BE SUPRISED TO SEE THE
700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SHIFT A BIT MORE SOUTH IN TIME
THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THIS EVENT AND SHIFT SNOW MORE OUT OF
FAR SE ND, BUT AS IT STANDS CURRENTLY 30 PCT CHANCE OF SUB-
ADVISORY IMPACTS IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND (SARGENT, RANSOM, RICHLAND
COUNTIES) AND 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS IN SAME AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THIS WAVE...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN PARTICULARLY SUNDAY-
MONDAY PERIOD WITH HIGHS LIKELY SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS BELOW
ZERO IN SOME AREAS. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS
REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CIGS ALL AREAS, WITH CLOUD BASES MOSTLY IN
THE 1300 TO 2000 FT AGL RANGE. LOOKING UPSTREAM I WOULD SUSPECT
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE GOING THRU THE DAY IN THIS. SOME HOLES IN
THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR ESP IN E ND. NW WINDS 10-20 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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