845
FXUS63 KFGF 271005
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
405 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PLACES
FROM BAUDETTE TO BIG FALLS
- SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BASIC 500 MB PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WILL SEE BROAD TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND VARIOUS SHORT WAVES (MOSTLY WEAK) DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH RE-INFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.
EACH SHOT OF COLD AIR IS A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS ONE.
PROVIDED WE CAN CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS, WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN MANY
AREAS BELOW ZERO....ESP SNOW COVERED AREAS. OVERALL THE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS DOESNT SHOW ANY BIG SYSTEMS OUR WAY, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE AS USUAL UNCERTAINITY EXISTS IN THE THE PERIOD
DAY 5 AND LATER AS MODELS OFTEN DONT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF
CLIPPERS WELL IN THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD AND BEYOND.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOR THIS THANKSGIVING DAY, QUIET WEATHER FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS.
WILL MAINTAIN NARROW STIP OF SNOW CHANCES DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW INTO BAUDETTE. OBS IN THAT AREA HAVE INDICATED VSBYS
VARYING FROM P6SM TO 3/4SM TONIGHT. NBM ALONG WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HRRR/RRFS DO INDICATE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
RIGHT OVER BAUDETTE OR JUST EAST THEN THRU WESTERN KOOCHICHING
COUNTY. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL BY PREV SHIFT AND MAINTAINED. MOST
LIKELY AMOUNT IS AN INCH OR SO....BUT WITH NW WIND DIRECTION A
NARROW LINE OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THIS CURRENT TIME PERIOD
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR THE LOW/KOOCH COUNTY LINE.
..FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SNOW
00Z AND INCOMING 06Z DATA IS SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTH SHIFT IN
SNOW WITH PROBS FOR 1, 2 AND 3 INCH SNOWFALL A BIT LOWER THAN IT
WAS SHOWING WEDNESDAY FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MAIN BAND OF
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY FROM SW ND INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN
AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY NIGHT IN THAT AREA AS 850-700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES IN A NARROW ZONE
IN THAT AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY MORNING, WILL
SEE MUCH WEAKER FORCING SPREAD EAST ON NORTH SIDE OF SOUTHEAST
MOVING UPPER WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS INTO
SE ND. NBM SNOW PROBS INDICATE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCHES, 25 PCT
FARGO TO 60 PCT FORMAN ND, NORTH OF FARGO-FERGUS FALLS TAPERS
OFF TO SINGLE DIGITS. PROBS FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES FALL OFF TO
10 PCT FARGO TO 40 PCT FORMAN ND AND FALL OFF EVEN MORE FOR MORE
THAN 3 INCHES (ADVISORY RANGE) WITH 20 PCT FORMAN AND 5 PCT
FARGO.
SO AT THIS TIME THIS SNOW SYSTEM SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ADVISORY
HEADLINES, UNLESS A HIGHER END, LOW PERCENTAGE SNOWFALL OCCURS.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS 15-16S FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
PERIOD AS WELL PER NBM UP TO GRAND FORKS, BUT MAY WELL SEE THOSE
POPS CONTINUE TO DROP. EITHER WAY NORTH OF FARGO ANY SNOWFALL TO
BE NON-IMPACTFUL. FORTUNATELY AS WELL WITH SFC LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY WE HAVE A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN CAUSING ANY IMPACTS
DUE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF NEW OR OLD SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND OR
WEST CENTRAL MN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
MVFR STRATUS IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MN, THOUGH VFR STRATUS (3200-5000 FT AGL)
IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD FORM THE NORTHEAST AND IS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER KTVF. SATELLITE/OBS TRENDS MATCHING SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOW THIS IMPROVING TREND EVENTUALLY ARRIVING IN
EASTERN ND DURING THE FIRST 6HR OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH MVFR
CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL IN NORTH CENTRAL MN TOWARD
KBJI. CONFIDENCE IS PARTICULARLY LOW IN THIS PATTERN AS THE AIR
MASS WILL TEND TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS
FORMING OVER THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD AND SOME GUIDANCE
IS PICKING UP ON THIS DURING THE 15-22Z PERIOD. EXPECT VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS A MORE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PREVAILING VFR ARRIVING IN ALL CURRENT
GUIDANCE DUE TO SHIFTING FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST MOVES EAST LATER IN THE
TAF PERIOD AND WINDS THAT ARE HOLDING IN THE 10-14KT RANGE
(GUSTING TO 20KT) SHOULD DECREASE AND EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM THURSDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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