015
FXUS63 KFGF 271734
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PLACES
FROM BAUDETTE TO BIG FALLS
- SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
A DECK OF CLOUDS IS PUSHING DOWN FROM CANADA, OTHERWISE ITS
QUIET HERE. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES/PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
UNDER THIS STRATUS DECK, BUT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THEY ARE VERY FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
BIG CLEARING AREA HAS SURGED SOUTH CLEARING OUT THE SOLID
STRATOCU DECK. IN ITS WAKE IS PATCHY CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTH
FROM MANITOBA. SO SKY COVER TODAY VARIABLE FROM SUNSHINE TO
CLOUDY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
BASIC 500 MB PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WILL SEE BROAD TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND VARIOUS SHORT WAVES (MOSTLY WEAK) DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH RE-INFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR.
EACH SHOT OF COLD AIR IS A BIT COLDER THAN PREVIOUS ONE.
PROVIDED WE CAN CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS, WILL SEE LOW TEMPS IN MANY
AREAS BELOW ZERO....ESP SNOW COVERED AREAS. OVERALL THE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS DOESNT SHOW ANY BIG SYSTEMS OUR WAY, BUT
THAT COULD CHANGE AS USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE THE PERIOD
DAY 5 AND LATER AS MODELS OFTEN DONT HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF
CLIPPERS WELL IN THE DAY 5-7 PERIOD AND BEYOND.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW
FOR THIS THANKSGIVING DAY, QUIET WEATHER FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS.
WILL MAINTAIN NARROW STRIP OF SNOW CHANCES DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW INTO BAUDETTE. OBS IN THAT AREA HAVE INDICATED VSBYS
VARYING FROM P6SM TO 3/4SM TONIGHT. NBM ALONG WITH SHORT TERM
MODELS HRRR/RRFS DO INDICATE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
RIGHT OVER BAUDETTE OR JUST EAST THEN THRU WESTERN KOOCHICHING
COUNTY. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL BY PREV SHIFT AND MAINTAINED. MOST
LIKELY AMOUNT IS AN INCH OR SO....BUT WITH NW WIND DIRECTION A
NARROW LINE OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM THIS CURRENT TIME PERIOD
THRU THURSDAY NIGHT NEAR THE LOW/KOOCH COUNTY LINE.
..FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY SNOW
00Z AND INCOMING 06Z DATA IS SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTH SHIFT IN
SNOW WITH PROBS FOR 1, 2 AND 3 INCH SNOWFALL A BIT LOWER THAN IT
WAS SHOWING WEDNESDAY FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD. MAIN BAND OF
SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY FROM SW ND INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MN
AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY NIGHT IN THAT AREA AS 850-700 MB WARM
ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INCREASES IN A NARROW ZONE
IN THAT AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY MORNING, WILL
SEE MUCH WEAKER FORCING SPREAD EAST ON NORTH SIDE OF SOUTHEAST
MOVING UPPER WAVE WITH LIGHT SNOW INTO THE COLDER AIR MASS INTO
SE ND. NBM SNOW PROBS INDICATE FOR MORE THAN 1 INCHES, 25 PCT
FARGO TO 60 PCT FORMAN ND, NORTH OF FARGO-FERGUS FALLS TAPERS
OFF TO SINGLE DIGITS. PROBS FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES FALL OFF TO
10 PCT FARGO TO 40 PCT FORMAN ND AND FALL OFF EVEN MORE FOR MORE
THAN 3 INCHES (ADVISORY RANGE) WITH 20 PCT FORMAN AND 5 PCT
FARGO.
SO AT THIS TIME THIS SNOW SYSTEM SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ADVISORY
HEADLINES, UNLESS A HIGHER END, LOW PERCENTAGE SNOWFALL OCCURS.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS 15-16S FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS
PERIOD AS WELL PER NBM UP TO GRAND FORKS, BUT MAY WELL SEE THOSE
POPS CONTINUE TO DROP. EITHER WAY NORTH OF FARGO ANY SNOWFALL TO
BE NON-IMPACTFUL. FORTUNATELY AS WELL WITH SFC LOW WELL TO OUR
SOUTH IN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI SATURDAY WE HAVE A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN CAUSING ANY IMPACTS
DUE TO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF NEW OR OLD SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND OR
WEST CENTRAL MN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
A CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA FROM CANADA.
CEILINGS UPSTREAM HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED VFR, WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF MVFR. KEPT TAFS VFR EXCEPT FOR KBJI, WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, NORTHERLY
TODAY, SWITCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST VERY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT
KDVL. THERE ARE HINTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT FOG COULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT, WITH THE MOST AT RISK TERMINAL BEING KFAR. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO ADD ANY MENTION IN THE TAF, BUT IT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED MOVING FORWARD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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