856
FXUS63 KFGF 290930
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ENDS SATURDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SOME MINOR
WINTER IMPACTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 2-4 HOURS THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AS
SHOWN BY RADAR HAS AFFECTED AREAS WHERE IT WAS FORECAST TOO, AS
HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE MOVED FROM DICKEY COUNTY ND, THRU FAR
SARGENT COUNTY ND, INTO MARSHALL COUNTY SD. OBS INDICATE VSBYS
ARE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE AND DOT WEBCAMS INDICATE A STEADY SNOW,
BUT SNOW ITSELF IS QUITE FLUFFY AND FROM WHAT I CAN TELL FLAKE
SIZE IS SMALL, OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST RETURN AREAS. THE HEAVIER
SNOW VIA RADAR WILL SHIFT OUT OF SE ND BY 12Z. NO REPORTS OF
SNOWFALL YET IN THESE AREAS, BUT WEBCAMS INDICATE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WAS THOUGHT. WINDS ARE 5-10 MPH
SO THAT ISNT A FACTOR DESPITE FLUFFY NATURE. CERTAINLY COULD SEE
SOME TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES NEAR THE SD BORDER, BUT AS WAS
MENTIONED FRIDAY THE NUDGERS TO PUSH IT INTO ADVISORY ISSUANCE
JUST WERE/ARE NOT THERE.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH THRU CENTRAL AND PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE RRV, BUT
ALSO ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR. BUT WOULD THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE ENTIRE SYSTEM
DROPS TOO FAR SOUTH. 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTO NEBRASKA
AT 08Z WITH SFC LOW SOON TO INTENSIFY IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SO THIS AFTN ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. NEW
SNOWFALL AFTER 12Z TODAY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES SD BORDER INTO GRANT
COUNTY MN. FARTHER NORTH MEASURED IN TENTHS IN FARGO AND TRACE
TO A TENTH OR TWO FARTHER NORTH TO THE MANITOBA BORDER.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN ND SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS NEW
AIRMASS IS DRIER AND 925/850 MB RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PROVIDED WE
HAVE A CLEARER SKY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MANY LOWS BELOW ZERO,
ESP IN THE HEAVIER SNOWCOVER AREA.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE WINTER. LIKELY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD 500 MB OVER CENTRAL CANADA, AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL FOR
PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER CLIPPER TYPE LOW BRINGING POTENTIAL MINOR
WINTER IMPACTS LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WPC INDICATES 10-20 PCT
CHC OF MINOR IMPACTS FRIDAY OR NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
MVFR STRATUS IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL/NORTHWEST MN, WITH A FEW SMALLER AREAS OF VFR. A
LOT OF GUIDANCE STILL DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EXTENT
OF STRATUS BASED ON OBS AND LEANING TOWARDS THE PESSIMISTIC (BUT
MORE REPRESENTATIVE) GUIDANCE SHOWS MVFR EVENTUALLY
FILLING IN AT ALL TAF SITES IN EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD. THIS WOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING, WITH CLEARING ARRIVING IN NORTH CENTRAL ND TOWARDS
NORTHEAST ND AS MUCH DRIER (AND COLDER) AIR MOVES IN WITH
NORTHWEST BL FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY BRINING LIGHTER SNOW TO PARTS OF CENTRAL
ND THAT IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST ALONG A LINE FROM KDVL TO
LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF KFAR. THE TRACK WILL FAVOR THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND, THOUGH
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS (TO 1") AND BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS MAY STILL
OCCUR AT KFAR SATURDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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