070
FXUS63 KFGF 291728
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1128 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ENDS TODAY.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR SOME MINOR WINTER IMPACTS TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM IS APPROACHING DEVILS LAKE AT MIDDAY, THEN INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. OVERALL,
ONLY MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP WERE NEEDED THIS UPDATE IN ORDER
TO ACCOUNT FOR PRECIP TIMING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 546 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
A FEW REPORTS FOR FAR INDICATE THE FORECAST WE HAVE GOING IS
GOOD. 1 INCH REPORTED IN HANKINSON ND AREA AT AROUND 430 AM.
HEAVIER SNOW HAS SHIFTED ON RADAR OUT OF THE AREA AND NOW IN
NORTHEAST SD. VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE NOTED IN MUCH OF
EASTERN ND BUT HAVING TROUBLE DUE TO DRY AIR GETTING ANY PRECIP
INTO FARGO. BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE SOON. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A
DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW INTO GRAND FORKS THIS MORNING BUT FARGO
AREA LIKELY MORE ALONG THE LINE OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW TODAY. NEW SNOWFALL 12Z AND AFTER UNTIL 00Z IN FAR SE ND
INTO INTO GRANT COUNTY MN NEAR 1 INCH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 2-4 HOURS THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL AS
SHOWN BY RADAR HAS AFFECTED AREAS WHERE IT WAS FORECAST TOO, AS
HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE MOVED FROM DICKEY COUNTY ND, THRU FAR
SARGENT COUNTY ND, INTO MARSHALL COUNTY SD. OBS INDICATE VSBYS
ARE IN THE 1-3SM RANGE AND DOT WEBCAMS INDICATE A STEADY SNOW,
BUT SNOW ITSELF IS QUITE FLUFFY AND FROM WHAT I CAN TELL FLAKE
SIZE IS SMALL, OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST RETURN AREAS. THE HEAVIER
SNOW VIA RADAR WILL SHIFT OUT OF SE ND BY 12Z. NO REPORTS OF
SNOWFALL YET IN THESE AREAS, BUT WEBCAMS INDICATE NOT TOO
DIFFERENT CONDITIONS THAN WHAT WAS THOUGHT. WINDS ARE 5-10 MPH
SO THAT ISNT A FACTOR DESPITE FLUFFY NATURE. CERTAINLY COULD SEE
SOME TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES NEAR THE SD BORDER, BUT AS WAS
MENTIONED FRIDAY THE NUDGERS TO PUSH IT INTO ADVISORY ISSUANCE
JUST WERE/ARE NOT THERE.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING
NORTH THRU CENTRAL AND PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE RRV, BUT
ALSO ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR. BUT WOULD THINK SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
FALL IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE ENTIRE SYSTEM
DROPS TOO FAR SOUTH. 500 MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS INTO NEBRASKA
AT 08Z WITH SFC LOW SOON TO INTENSIFY IN MISSOURI THIS MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH SO THIS AFTN ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. NEW
SNOWFALL AFTER 12Z TODAY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES SD BORDER INTO GRANT
COUNTY MN. FARTHER NORTH MEASURED IN TENTHS IN FARGO AND TRACE
TO A TENTH OR TWO FARTHER NORTH TO THE MANITOBA BORDER.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO WESTERN ND SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE THIS NEW
AIRMASS IS DRIER AND 925/850 MB RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PROVIDED WE
HAVE A CLEARER SKY SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE MANY LOWS BELOW ZERO,
ESP IN THE HEAVIER SNOWCOVER AREA.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE WINTER. LIKELY SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BROAD 500 MB OVER CENTRAL CANADA, AND SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SIGNAL FOR
PERHAPS A BIT STRONGER CLIPPER TYPE LOW BRINGING POTENTIAL MINOR
WINTER IMPACTS LATE WEEK. AT THIS TIME WPC INDICATES 10-20 PCT
CHC OF MINOR IMPACTS FRIDAY OR NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BRING IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO
MANY OF THE REGIONAL TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 SM DURING SNOWFALL,
WITH P6SM OUTSIDE OF ACTIVELY FALLING SNOW. LOOKING FORWARD,
KDVL SHOULD START TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO 22Z AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING EAST. ALL SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
IMPROVEMENTS LATER THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD
PERSIST A BIT LONGER AT KBJI AND KTVF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...LYNCH
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