504
FXUS63 KFGF 292207
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
407 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC
AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER IMPACTS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTH TO NORTHWEST H5 FLOW WILL BRING A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT, WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES TO FALL BELOW ZERO. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
WHERE WE HAVE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK, GENERALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A SHORTWAVE BRINGS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT GENERALLY LOW QPF AND SNOW
POTENTIAL. TEMPS AT 850MB HAVE GOOD SUPPORT DOWN INTO THE -25C TO -
20C RANGE HEADING INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. A SECOND
SYSTEM APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE POTENTIAL; HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD AT THIS TIME IS TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ANY SINGLE SOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BRING IFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO
MANY OF THE REGIONAL TAF SITES HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY AROUND 1-2 SM DURING SNOWFALL,
WITH P6SM OUTSIDE OF ACTIVELY FALLING SNOW. LOOKING FORWARD,
KDVL SHOULD START TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO 22Z AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING EAST. ALL SITES WILL EVENTUALLY SEE
IMPROVEMENTS LATER THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD
PERSIST A BIT LONGER AT KBJI AND KTVF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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