847
FXUS63 KFGF 030901
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
301 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CLIPPER TRAIN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CHANCES, FOCUSED IN NW MINNESOTA THURSDAY
AND IN CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. SUB
ADVISORY IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WEEK TO MOVE IN TODAY WITH MINUS 18C
TO MINUS 22C 850 MB ADVECTING INTO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WE ARE HAVING CLEARING WORK SOUTH, BUT
ALSO WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS QUITE A BIT OF ICE CRYSTALS, AND
ALSO LINGERING FLURRIES TO START TODAY. HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY
SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS -15 TO -25F BELOW. WINDS
DIMNINISH THIS EVENING AND SHOUD BE A QUICK FALL OFF IN TEMPS,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE DEEPER SNOW
COVER EXISTS. WINDS TURN SOUTH OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT WITH LIKELY
RISING TEMPS ESP NORTHEAST ND. NEXT IN OUR PARADE OF CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO JUST EAST OF
WINNIPEG BY 00Z FRI. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE STEADIER SNOW MANITOBA
INTO NW ONTARIO BUT BRUSHING NW MN. SNOW AMOUNTS 1-2 INCHES
SEEM POSSIBLE BAUDETTE, WARROAD AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO A
TENTH OR TWO NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, THIEF RIVER FALLS TO
BEMIDJI. SURFACE LOT ITSELF ISNT STRONG AND COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND IT WEAK SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THIS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATE
CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AROUND 15 PERCENT LAKE OF THE WOODS
AREA.
NEXT CLIPPER OF IMPORTANCE TO WATCH WILL BE SATURDAY WITH THIS
ONE FARTHER WEST AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM
WESTERN ALBERTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHWEST ND. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR EAST SNOW WILL REACH BUT NBM AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF AND GFS AI MODELS ALL INDICATE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR 1 INCH ORE MORE WEST OF DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY
WITH CHANCES FOR 2 INCHES OR MORE MORE TOWARD WILISTON AND
DICKINSON.
SO WINTRY IMPACTS FROM BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE
SUB ADVISORY.
VERY FAR END OF THE EXTENDED TOWARD DEC 9/10TH THERE IS A SIGNAL
THAT A BIT MORE POTENT LOW MAY DEVELOP IN ALBERTA AND MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MID NEXT WEEK SURGING
EAST. NOT A HUGE STORM, BUT SOMETIME POTENTIALLY MORE IMPACTFUL.
BUT IT IS TOO FAR AWAY TO NOTE ANY CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION
EARLIER. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD, HOWEVER ONLY LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW 6SM
HAVE BEEN REPORTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS AS WELL, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ND EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD,
BUT SO FAR THIS HAS YET TO SHOW IMPACT IMPACTS NEAR KFAR.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME WITH THE LOSS OF HIGHER
MIXED LAYER WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT LIKELY WON'T DECREASE
BELOW 12KT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME CLEARING REGIONS UPSTREAM IN NORTHERLY FLOW THAT
MAY ALLOW FOR VFR TO RETURN DURING THE FIRST 6HR OF THE TAF
PERIOD, HOWEVER THIS IS ALSO THE TYPE OF PATTERN THAT NEW
STRATOCUMULUS MAY REFORM WHICH MAY NOT BE WELL REFLECTED IN
CURRENT GUIDANCE. WHETHER THIS AMOUNTS TO LINGERING MVFR
CEILINGS OR JUST A SCATTERED LAYER IS HARD TO SAY AS DRIER AIR
WILL BE ARRIVING THAT MAY LIMIT COVERAGE WEDNESDAY IN ND. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR TO LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON REMAINS
IN NORTHWEST MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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