033
FXUS63 KFGF 041001
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
401 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE CLIPPER TRAIN IS GOING STRONG WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR
FORECASTS INTO NEXT WEEK REGARDING ANY IMPACTS. IMPACTS WILL
BE SUB ADVISORY THRU THE WEEKEND, BUT POTENTIAL STRONGER
SYSTEM MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE CLIPPER TRAIN WILL BE GOING STRONG INTO NEXT WEEK. THE
COLDEST AIRMASS WILL SLIP EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND 500 MB SHORT WAVE DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD
WINNIPEG THEN TOWARD KENORA THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WITH THIS WITH IN GENERAL 1-2 INCHES...WITH HIGHER END AMOUNTS
IN NW ONTARIO SIDE OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. BRIEF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES FOR A TIME THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE
NORTH RRV TO TRF TO BEMIDJI AREA ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MAIN
LIGHT SNOW.
TODAY WILL SEE WARMER AIR TRY TO ADVANCE EAST WITH WINDS SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. FEEL NBM TEMPS TOO WARM AND NUDGED DOWN A LITTLE AS
HRRR AND CONSHORT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN GF REMAINING UNDER 20 VS
LOW 20S ON NBM. PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FROM THE SSW PARTS OF
EASTERN ND INTO FAR NW MN AHEAD OF SYSTEM MID MORNING THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS 30-35 MPH OR SO. THESE GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH TO LOFT THE SNOW PACK IN SE ND...BUT SOME DRIFTING IS
POSSIBLE. NOT ENOUGH SNOW TO BLOW OR DRIFT AROUND IN NORTHEAST
ND.
FAST ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER THIS TIME FROM
CENTRAL ALBERTA TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST
THRU SOUTHERN ND INTO CENTRAL MN TONIGHT-FRIDAY. WEAK LOW WITH
THIS AND EVEN A WEAKER 500 MB SHORT WAVE. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
HALF INCH OR LESS FOCUSED IN SE ND.
BEHIND THIS WAVE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES
BACK IN ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWS
TEENS BELOW ZERO. WINDS LIGHTER THOUGH WITH THIS COLD SHOT AS
COMPARED TO TUES NIGHT.
NEXT WEEK UNCERTAINITY IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS
INCREASES GREATLY. ONE FAST MOVING WEAKER WAVE MONDAY. BUT
STRONGER ONE WHICH HAS SHOWN UP IN PRIOR MODELS FOR MID WEEK
REMAINS. THOUGH TRACK LOOKS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH, BUT HOW FAR
SOUTH DEPENDS GREATLY ON LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
PLACEMENT OF COLD HIGH TO OUR NORTH. OVERALL TRENDS THOUGH IN
THE PAST 1-2 DAYS IS A BIT MORE SOUTH TRACK MORE AFFECTING PARTS
OF ND/MN. OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF HAVE LOW TRACK REGINA-
BISMARCK-MANKATO MN WITH STRIP OF POTENTIAL MORE THAN 3 INCH
SNOWFALL NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF IT. 00Z ENSEMBLES AND NBM
INDICATE A BIT NORTHERN TRACK WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF MORE THAN 3
INCH SNOWFALL (20-30 PCT) MORE NEAR A BOTTINEAU TO GRAND FORKS
TO PARK RAPIDS ZONE. THIS WOULD BE TUES AFTERNOON-NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A 30% CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW (MAINLY IN MN). AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION, AND WITH IT
WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD. ONCE MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON
THEY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT THURSDAY,
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS MAINLY IN CENTRAL MN
(INCLUDING BJI).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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