714
FXUS63 KFGF 051045 CCA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
403 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ENDS IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SOUTH OF I-
94 SATURDAY.
- TUESDAY WILL SEE POTENTIAL STRONGER SYSTEM WITH 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OUR CURRENT 500 MB SHORT WAVE AND SFC LOW IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST. IT IS QUITE WEAK BUT IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IN NORTHEAST SD AT 08Z. LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM MAINLY CLOSE
TO THE SD BORDER AND INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHERLY FROM FARGO AND POINTS NORTH WITH
COLDER AIR SINKING SOUTH, BUT NOT A BIG PUSH AT THIS TIME, BUT
COLD ADVECTION INCREASES THRU THE DAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM AS
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAIN IN THE 925-850 MB TO START THE DAY
WITH DRIER AIRMASS NOTED MOVING INTO THIS LAYER THIS EVENING AS
COLDER, DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG SD
BORDER THIS MORNING. UNDER ANY OF THE STRATOCU SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT DIDNT BROAD BRUSH FLURRIES AT THIS TIME.
THERE WAS FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN E ND AND
PARTS OF THE RRV AT THE TIME OF THE FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
DROPPING SOUTH THIS PAST EVENING. FREEZING DRIZZLE CAN'T BE
RULED OUT BUT OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR THIS IS
LESSENING AS COLDER AIR DEEPENS SO DID NOT CONTINUE FZDZ MENTION
PAST 12Z.
TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY WILL SEE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN NORTHERN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WITH
SFC RIDGE SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN ND. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
WILL RIDGE ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS AND BRING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY, MAINLY FROM EASTERN MONTANA,
THRU WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW BRUSHING FAR SOUTHEAST ND WHERE A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF FARGO. FARGO AND
NORTH WILL BE DRY. DRY WEATHER ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY MORNING. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR, THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL DOWN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO BUT WINDS ARE NEAR CALM SO
WIND CHILLS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OR BOUNDARY BETWEEN
THE COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS AND A MILDER AIRMASS SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN HALF OF ND MONDAY. AHEAD OF IT WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS HALF INCH OR SO POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE A MUCH STRONGER 500 MB WAVE
COME OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO CENTRAL B.C. WITH SFC LOW FORMING
IN CENTRAL ALBERTA AND LIKELY TO HEAD SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE. SYSTEM THOUGH HAS PACIFIC MOISTURE AND
THUS MORE QPF TO WORK WITH IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL SNOW. JUST
NORTH OF LOW TRACK IS WHERE THE MAIN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE
BUT WHERE THAT IS WHILE THERE ISNT A LARGE SPREAD AT THE MOMENT
AMONG THE MODELS I AM SURE THERE WILL BE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES
HEADING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THUS CONFIDENCE IN SOME PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA GETTING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IS INCREASING
(60 PERCENT VIA WPC) THE LOCATION OF THAT IS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE REMAINS A 10 PCT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS. THIS WOULD BE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH A POCKET OF VFR STILL NEAR
KFAR EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD THAT SHOULD RAPIDLY FILL IN BASED
ON NEARBY OBS. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION, BUT THE TRANSITION (MAINLY
NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN), BUT THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY. THE MAIN AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO SNOW RATES IS IN LINE TO MOVE OVER
SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
ENDS BUT STRATUS LINGERS AT LEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
DRIER ARCTIC AIR STARTING TO ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN ND THOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BRING VFR TO KGFK/KFAR
UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST AS THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OVER SOUTHEAST ND INTO MN WHILE A COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH (ALREADY IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...DJR
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