098
FXUS63 KFGF 221750
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX IS FORECASTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OR SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
STILL NOT MUCH REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR AREA, BUT SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED IN SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL
ND. MANY OF THE CAMS RUNS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT AS IT
PUSHES INTO EASTERN ND, BUT A FEW BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING
PRECIP TO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. ENSEMBLES STILL ALL OVER
THE PLACE AND PROBS ARE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH FOR ICING, BUT ONLY
AT 30 PERCENT. WITH LACK OF CERTAINTY WILL HOLD WITH WHAT WE
HAVE GOING AND UPDATE IF POPS NEED TO BE PULLED FURTHER SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
FAIRLY CLOUDY AND QUIET CURRENTLY WITH WARM FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN CWA EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. SO FAR
NONE OF THE RADAR RETURNS REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS, FREEZING
RAIN LOOKS MOST LIKELY WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT. THERE IS THE
QUESTION OF SATURATION AND HOW THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK. RIGHT NOW
THERE IS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICING NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND AROUND 10 PERCENT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
HIGHWAY 200. WILL KEEP MENTION GOING BUT STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW
RADAR ECHOS EXTENDING FROM THE TWIN CITIES BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ND. CURRENTLY, WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
ECHOS IN OUR FA, DUE TO DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS WAVE,
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW, WILL
REALLY BE PART OF A RINSE AND REPEAT CYCLE THROUGH THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WAVERING NORTH/SOUTH SLIGHTLY,
ZONAL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL KEEP OUR FA IN THE ACTIVE
STORM TRACK. LUCKILY, NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TERRIBLY
STRONG, BUT ONE OF A BIT STRONGER STRENGTH DOES PASS THROUGH TO
END THE WEEK LATE THURSDAY, STICKING AROUND INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER
ARRIVES ON ITS HEELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
PREDICTABILITY BY THIS POINT BEGINS TO WANE AS ENSEMBLES START
TO SHOW A WIDER ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SCENARIOS.
..WINTRY MIX TODAY
WHILE NOTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME, THIS SHOULD
CHANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES MANITOBA. THE
BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL RESIDE IN CANADA, WITH OUR FA ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE. SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT WARM NOSE CENTERED ON
ABOUT 850 MB, WHICH WILL COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. A MIX
OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS FORECAST FROM HIGHWAY 200 NORTH,
WITH AREAS ADJACENT TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE IS COLDER SEEING THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PLAIN SNOW.
WHILE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE BRIEF AND AMOUNTS LIGHT, IT ONLY
TAKES A LITTLE ICE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS, SO THOSE OUT AND ABOUT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND BE MINDFUL OF SLIPPERY SURFACES.
..POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES ON CHRISTMAS DAY, LASTING INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT,
AS SOME ENSEMBLES TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH, WHILE OTHERS HAVE A
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHO SEE WHAT KIND OF
PRECIPITATION, AND HOW MUCH OF IT. ANOTHER WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL
LIKELY COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE, ALTHOUGH WHERE WHAT TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT UNTIL THE TRACK COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AS MORE DETAILS BECOME
AVAILABLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. SOME
INDICATION OF FZRA POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS QUESTION IF IT WILL
REACH THE GROUND AND BEST CHANCES ARE NORTH OF OUR AIRPORTS. DID
PUT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY GOING
TO VFR WITH CIRRUS DECK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE OR SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY WITH A WARM FRONT STARTING TO
PUSH IN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
UNDER 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/JR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...JR
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