351
FXUS63 KFGF 230418
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1018 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE,
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
A FEW SPRINKLES/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING BUT NOT NOTICING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT
COATING OF SNOW BEING WHISKED ACROSS AREA ROADS. THUS WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS WE SEEM TO BE TRENDING CLOSER TO THE FLOOR OF
WHAT TONIGHT COULD HAVE BEEN WITH THE INKLING OF A FREEZING
DRIZZLE PROFILE THAT HAD BEEN NOTED EARLIER IN THE FORECAST
TODAY. THINGS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS
MINNESOTA SHOULD BE IN THE CLEAR. ON THE OTHER HAND SEEING SOME
LIGHT SNOW BENEATH THE STRATUS IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE DGZ SATURATION IS EXTREMELY SHALLOW
(<50MB) AND COULD QUICKLY SEE ALL PRECIP BEGIN TO EVAPORATE
GIVEN A MODELED NEAR SURFACE DRY LAYER BENEATH THE SATURATION
FROM 500-1000M UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED WEAK VORT MAXES
MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE OFF TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
PLAINS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING QUICKLY OFF AND THE NEXT WEAK TROUGH MOVING IN. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE
CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME, ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS QUICKLY THROUGH
THE PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY, WITH AGAIN HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGHS
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
STILL NOT A HUGE AMOUNT REACHING THE GROUND, BUT THE NDAWN
SENSORS SHOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS AROUND
LANGDON AS WELL AS JUST WEST OF US IN SOUTHWESTERN STUTSMAN
COUNTY. SEVERAL CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MORE
SOUTHERLY PRECIP WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA, WHILE OTHERS KEEP SOME LIGHT PRECIP MOVING INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 200. ALL MODELS HAVE A PRETTY STRONG
DRY LAYER THAT WILL SLOW DOWN TO STOP PRECIP FROM SATURATING TO
THE GROUND. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BRINGING A GLAZE TO SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
CWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, RANGING FROM 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, MORE SLEET AND SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE BUT STILL SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN TOO.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT,
BUT WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW IMPACTS DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
..CHRISTMAS DAY SYSTEM
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR HOW THEY
HANDLE THE TROUGH MOVING SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN OF TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE PLAINS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, THE
SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES STILL HAVE LOW
PREDICTABILITY. BEST SIGNALS FOR PRECIP FROM THE ECMWF EFI ARE
EITHER SOUTH OR NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES, SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
HEAVY BUT EVEN SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP COULD CAUSE IMPACTS. NBM
PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN ARE
ABOUT EQUAL FOR SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY EVENING, BUT
NUMBERS ARE LOW AT 15 TO 20 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
LOW CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIP IN GRIDS AND HWO, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP OUT THERE (MAINLY SNOW AND SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN MOST LIKELY). DID PUT IN SOME MVFR CEILINGS FOR A
TIME OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY GOING TO VFR BY THE MID MORNING WITH
CIRRUS DECK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE VARY TONIGHT
BUT MAINLY STAYING UNDER 12KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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