291
FXUS63 KFGF 230956
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
356 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE 500 MB PATTERN IS CHANGING A BIT FOR OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND STRONG MOISTURE PLUME IS INTO CALIFORNIA THAT WILL
CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL IN TURN DEVELOP A BROAD RIDGE AT 500 MB
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SO FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW FLOW DEVELOPING HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A TEMP GRADIENT FROM COLD IN NE ND
AND NW MN TO MUCH MILDER AIRMASS SW ND. BRIEF 850/925 MB COOLING
INTO NW MN THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND DEPARTING
SFC LOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WARM ADVECTION IS
REPLACED QUICKLY BY WARM ADVECTION BY MID AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, NOT TOO SUPRISING FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO BIG DRY COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE IN AS
THE COLD DRY AIR REMAINS WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA IN N
ALBERTA. UPSTREAM SATELLITE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MVFR STRATOCU
DECK IN WESTERN MANITOBA, EASTERN AND CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO
NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN MN. SOME CLEARING NOTED MOVING EAST
TOWARD BOTTINEAU AREA BUT ALSO CLOUDS MORE SO DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THAN DUE EAST. SO DID INCREASE SKY COVER OVER MODEL OUTPUT FOR
TODAY. DRY WEATHER FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND WARMER TEMPS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 30 SE ND INTO WC MN BUT NORTHEAST ND AND FAR
NORTHERN RRV HOLDING IN THE TEENS UNDER MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH ON WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE FROM NORTHERN
ALBERTA TO NORTH OF WINNIPEG. DEGREE OF CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS
THOUGH UNCERTAIN, BUT STUCK WITH MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING AT LEAST
SOME SUN WEDNESDAY.
..WINTRY MIX CHRISTMAS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO LEAD TO A SHORT WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST AND ON TOP OF THE RIDGE THRU SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH
850MB WARM ADVECTION AND A SOUTH 850 MB JET AT 40 KTS SETTING UP
ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION, BUT
HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE BORDER WHERE WARM
ADVECTION MAX AND NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED NORTH OF
WINNIPEG. BUT DO EXPECT AT LEAST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE FCST AREA IN WARM ADV ZONE AFTERNOON CHRISTMAS DAY INTO
NIGHT. PTYPE IS A HUGE QUESTION. DEPENDS ON HOW FAR NORTH WARM
LAYER GETS. AT THE PRESENT TIME BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
(0.01 TO 0.05 QPF) OF FREEZING RAIN IS IN ROUGHLY THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA NEAR HWYS 200 AND HWY 2.
INTENSITY/COVERAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL ICY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
UNCERTAIN THOUGH. THUS TO WHAT DEGREE OF IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IS
UNCERTAIN. WILL UP PROB OF MINOR IMPACTS (ADVISORY LEVEL) TO 30
PERCENT AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE ICE THAN 24
HOURS AGO.
LATER PERIODS INDICATE THE BOUNDARY FROM A MUCH MILDER AIRMASS
AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE FCST
AREA. ALONG THIS BAROLINIC ZONE AT 850 MB WHICH IS MORE IN S
MANITOBA WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTSEM AND 500
MB UPPER TROUGH THAT ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IN MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA SATURDAY. THERE ARE CURRENT LOW POPS
FOR -SN IN E ND/NW MN FOR THIS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MVFR LOOKS LIKELY FOR MOST (MINUS FARGO WHICH IS LESS CERTAIN)
AS CIGS DROP NEAR TO BELOW IFR THRESHOLDS LOCALLY AS FLURRIES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A DECK OF LOW STRATUS. WINDS
TURNING NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS FOR DVL, GFK AND TVF YET TONIGHT. CURRENTLY SEEING NW
WINDS OF 20KTS GUSTING 30KTS WITH THESE EXPECTED TO END BY
AROUND 12Z. FLURRIES WILL BE LIGHT AND UNLIKELY TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY PAST 5SM. IFR WHILE POSSIBLE AS LATE AS THE 15Z
TIMEFRAME WAS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY SINGLE TERMINAL AND THUS
HAVE CAPPED THE WORST OF CONDITIONS AT LOW MVFR FOR NOW BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AND POTENTIALLY AMENDED AT A LATER
TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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