776
FXUS63 KFGF 240521
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1121 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING, WITH
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS
- A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING WINTER IMPACTS. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY FROM BLOWING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
IMPACTS WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK WAVE
IS TRAVERSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER RIGHT NOW AND MAY CAUSE
SOME SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE AT BEST. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, INCREASING AS YOU HEAD SOUTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
POCKETS OF FLURRIES EVIDENT. REGARDLESS OF FLURRIES, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE GENERALLY ZONAL TO
FLAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. PACIFIC SOURCED-
MOISTURE WILL FLOW THROUGH THE JET STREAM ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS IMPULSES OF ENERGY. GENERALLY
FLURRIES WITH SOME EMBEDDED BOUTS OF LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOW
(LESS THAN 1 INCH) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ONE SUCH PIECE OF ENERGY/MOISTURE COMES THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY.
THIS WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION, INCLUDING
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE ACCRETION AND SNOW ACCUMULATION. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE DETAILS BELOW.
TOWARD THIS WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BREAK IN THE
PACIFIC TROUGH, OR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IT,
ALLOWING IT TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
CENTRAL CAN. THIS WILL BRING MORE CONSOLIDATED FORCING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, AS WELL AS MOISTURE. MUCH
UNCERTAINTY EXTENDS INTO THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL. MORE DETAILS
BELOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IS LOW TO MEDIUM IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, MAINLY DUE TO UNKNOWNS ABOUT CLOUD COVER
AND STRENGTH OF SUBSEQUENT WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE.
..WINTRY MIX CHRISTMAS DAY / NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGING /
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TRAVERSES THE REGION THURSDAY, WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS INCLUDES
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ALOFT NOSING THEIR WAY INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE WAVE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION, DRIVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET
IN ADDITION TO SNOW. MOST GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 4
INCHES AND 0.1", RESPECTIVELY). HOWEVER, AVAILABLE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT SOME TRANSIENT MESOSCALE
FORCING BEING PRESENT, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN
AMOUNTS/ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN
SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF
IMPACTS.
DESPITE LIGHTER AMOUNTS, POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ON A
POTENTIALLY BUSIER THAN AVERAGE TRAVEL HOLIDAY PERIOD MEANS IT
WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH ACCUMULATION TO RESULT IN IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
FROM ICING. THUS, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY- TYPE
IMPACTS.
..POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO AGREE IN AT LEAST SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER WAVE EMANATING OUT OF THE BROADER
PACIFIC TROUGH, DEEPENING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, THIS
WEEKEND. WHILE SPREAD IS HIGH IN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION LIKE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE EVENTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ENSEMBLE
SIGNALS LIKE ENS EFI IS HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
WINDS INTO OUR REGION, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY.
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM DEPOSIT AS LITTLE AS 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
HIGH WINDS OVER 35 MPH, BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS
IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO THAT COULD HAPPEN, HOWEVER JUST AS
PLAUSIBLE IS A SCENARIO THAT RESULTS IN LITTLE TO NO SNOW, WITH
LESSER WINDS. THIS WOULD MITIGATE WINTER IMPACTS DURING ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE TRAVEL HOLIDAY PERIOD.
WHILE THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS LARGE, THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY THAT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL
IMPACTS. THUS, THERE IS CURRENTLY A 10% CHANCE FOR WARNING-
LEVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AVIATION FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AS TEH OVERNIGHT GOES ON.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS YOU GET FURTHER WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ARISING.
THINGS GET TOUGH TO DISCERN AFTER 12Z. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AS
A FRONT COMES THROUGH TOMORROW, STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. WHAT
MAKES THINGS DIFFICULT IS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
STALL SOMETIME TOMORROW. WITH THE STRATUS DECK WITH THIS,
GUIDANCE RANGES ON CEILINGS FROM LIFR TO VFR WITH NO REAL
COALESCENSE AROUND ONE MEAN. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT, GENERALLY EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW
AFTER 12Z, AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DIMENSIONS OF THE STRATUS DECK MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARISE BUT MISSES ALL 5 TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE LOW CERTAINTY IN CEILINGS, PREVAILING MVFR WAS PUT IN
THE TAF FOR ALL TAF SITES, BUT EXPECT VARIABILITY AS CERTAINTY
INCREASES OR DECREASES IN CEILINGS. THIS MAY LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL
NOT BE IN A HURRY TO LEAVE UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...PERROUX
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