315
FXUS63 KFGF 241018
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING, WITH
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS
- A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING WINTER IMPACTS. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY FROM BLOWING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB FLOW IS NOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN US THEN MORE
WEST-SOUTHWEST ON TOP OF A 500 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS
THRU NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA INTO MINNESOTA. THIS WILL BE THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN PATTERN RETURNS TO THE
USUAL WAY ITS BEEN FOR MONTHS WHICH IS TAKING PACIFIC WAVES
INLAND THRU WASHINGTON STATE AND B.C. AND EAST ALONG THE INTL
BORDER/SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE BARONCLINIC
ZONE FROM COLD TO MILD RIGHT NEAR THE INTL BORDER INTO THE
WEEKEND, BEFORE A QUICK SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY-
MONDAY.
..LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING
COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THRU THE AREA TODAY, WITH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING NORTH 15 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS WELL NORTH THOUGH OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA AT 06Z THU. IT WILL
MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER INCREASE
RATHER QUICKLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z THU FROM SOUTHWEST MN, EASTERN SD
INTO SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL ND. MODELS HINT AT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING IN THIS MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ZONE THRU 12Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF WADENA-GRAND FORKS REGION. SO DID
ADD SOME PATCHY FOG AND SOME FZDZ TO GRIDS TO BLEND WITH
THOUGHTS FROM ABR AND MPX IN REGARDS TO FZDZ CHANCES ALONG OUR
COMMON BORDER NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND NORTHWEST FROM
THERE TO IN BETWEEN GFK/DVL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ZONE LIFTS NORTHEAST THRU THE MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE LIFTING NORTHEAST AS WELL. HREF PTYPE DATA
SHOWS FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE PELLETS THE MAIN POSSIBILITY IN ANY
PRECIP THAT FORMS LATE TONIGHT THRU THU AM IN E ND/WEST CENTRAL
MN. INITIALLY 850 MB MOISTURE IS LACKING SO MOISTURE IS MORE
TIED TO 900 MB AND LOWER. BUT INCREASED 850 MB MOISTURE AND
SOUNDING SATURATION OCCURS IN NW MN CHRISTMAS EVENING AND POPS
WILL INCREASE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND HREF PTYPE PROGS INDICATE
PREDOMINATE FREEZING/SLEET IN MANY AREAS THEN TURNING TO MORE
PREDOMINATE LIGHT SNOW AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS. UP TO 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALLL POSSIBLE AROUND BAUDETTE.
QUESTION FOR DEGREE OF IMPACTS WILL RESIDE WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS. BUT GIVEN THE COLD
SURFACES IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO MAKE ROADS POOR. I WILL UP THE
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS TO 50 PERCENT FOR NOW. AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN PTYPE AND TIMING COULD EASILY SEE
ADVSIORY CHANCES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
..SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NEXT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IN THIS CASE WILL TAKE UPPER
LOW ALONG THE INTL BORDER. SNOWFALL CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF
THE BORDER BUT THERE IS SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX
NOTHERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN SATURDDAY. PROBS FOR 1 INCH OF
SNOW FROM NBM AND ALSO FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
THRU 12Z SUNDAY ARE IN THE 20 PCT RANGE. SUNDAY THOUGH
DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT THE UPPER
LOW THAT MOVES IN DIGS A BIT MORE SOUTH WITH 00Z CANADIAN GLOBAL
OPERATIONAL RUN SHOWING THIS WITH UPPER LOW SUNDAY AFTN IN
CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY IN
THE AREA VS THE OTHER MODELS WHICH TAKE UPPER LOW MOVE DUE EAST
AND OUR AREA DRIER SUNDAY. NBM FOLLOWS THIS DRIER ROUTE AND
HENCE IN THE GRIDS ON SUNDAY CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW IS QUITE LOW
WITH 20 POPS IN NW MN AND LESS THAN 15 POPS ELSEWHERE. BUT THE
MORE SOUTH POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW VIA CANADIAN MODEL AND ITS
ENSEMBLES HINT AT THAT TOO AS WELL AS A FEW ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, IS A POSSIBILITY AND THUS DID RETAIN THE IDEA OF 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THE SNOW
ON THE GROUND WONT BLOW MUCH AS ACCUMULATION IN MANY AREAS ARE
MORE IN THE CITY/TOWNS AND SNOW IN FIELDS IN MANY LOCATIONS IN
THE PRAIRIE PORTION OF THE AREA IS NOT DEEP DUE TO SNOW BEING BLOWN
BY THE LAST SYSTEM. 850 MB WINDS 45 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY IN COLD ADVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AVIATION FORECAST IS IN PLACE FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, MOSTLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SIT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AS TEH OVERNIGHT GOES ON.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AS YOU GET FURTHER WEST BUT CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THIS ARISING.
THINGS GET TOUGH TO DISCERN AFTER 12Z. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AS
A FRONT COMES THROUGH TOMORROW, STRATUS WILL ACCOMPANY IT. WHAT
MAKES THINGS DIFFICULT IS THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO
STALL SOMETIME TOMORROW. WITH THE STRATUS DECK WITH THIS,
GUIDANCE RANGES ON CEILINGS FROM LIFR TO VFR WITH NO REAL
COALESCENSE AROUND ONE MEAN. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT, GENERALLY EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS TOMORROW
AFTER 12Z, AND POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DIMENSIONS OF THE STRATUS DECK MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, SO THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS ARISE BUT MISSES ALL 5 TAF SITES.
GIVEN THE LOW CERTAINTY IN CEILINGS, PREVAILING MVFR WAS PUT IN
THE TAF FOR ALL TAF SITES, BUT EXPECT VARIABILITY AS CERTAINTY
INCREASES OR DECREASES IN CEILINGS. THIS MAY LAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALOFT WILL
NOT BE IN A HURRY TO LEAVE UNTIL LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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