326
FXUS63 KFGF 242333
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
533 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING, WITH
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS DUE TO A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE.
- A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING SOME BLOWING SNOW. THERE IS A 10
PERCENT CHANCE FOR WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE STARTING TO
PUSH IN TOMORROW AFTER SOME BRIEF RIDGING. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES
QUICKLY EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER, STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL BE QUICKLY ON THEIR HEELS AND DIG DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. SHOULD GET ANOTHER SURGE
OF COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH WIND. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THAT ARE NOT RESOLVABLE AT THIS TIME.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS DAY
CURRENT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FLIP AROUND LATER TONIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO ONTARIO. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING NOT ONLY WARM AIR ADVECTION AS
WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING, BUT SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOW
VISIBILITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA SO JUST KEPT A
PATCHY FOG MENTION IN OUR WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS IN EXACTLY WHEN THE LOWER LAYER BECOME
SATURATED, BUT MOST HAVE SOME PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND HREF HAVE A HODGEPODGE
OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL AS SOME PROBABILITIES OF SLEET
AND SNOW, MAINLY IN THE NORTH. PROBABILITIES OF ICE ACCUM UP TO
0.01 INCHES RANGE FROM OVER 50 PERCENT FROM THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA ACCORDING TO THE HREF,
TO THE NBM SHOWING AROUND 20 PERCENT MAINLY AROUND ROSEAU AND
BEMIDJI. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AND
EXACT PLACEMENT, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH ADVISORY YET
BUT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL WILL PUT OUT AN SPS HIGHLIGHTING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIPPERY IMPACTS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST CHRISTMAS NIGHT.
..BLOWING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
FIRST FEW SHORTWAVES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF 2025
LOOK TO TRACK MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR OVER AN INCH OF SNOW RIGHT AROUND THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS LOOK MORE CERTAIN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS ON SUNDAY WITH PLENTY
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS
50 MPH AND HIGHER ARE OVER 60 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THERE WILL
BE MUCH SNOW TO BLOW AROUND. PROBABILISTIC WSSI SHOW UP 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS. WILL START TO INCLUDE
GRAPHICS DEPICTING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT, BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 531 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE MAJORITY OF AVIATION IMPACTS WILL ARISE AFTER 12Z. UNTIL
THEN, EXPECT POCKETS OF 010-020 CLOUD BASES BUT FOR THE MOST
PART REMAINING VFR DUE TO COVERAGE. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH THIS BUT UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP.
GREATER IMPACTS WILL COME TOMORROW. FZDZ MAY ARISE AT
GFK/FAR/TVF AFTER 12Z, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS
TOO LOW TO ADD AS A PREVAILING GROUP. MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
BUT MAINLY IMPACTING DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
QUESTION OF WIDESPREAD THINGS WILL BE, IT DOES APPEAR IF WE DO
SEE PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF IP OR FZRA. THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SCOPE OF PRECIPITATION AND GIVEN
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE UNDER 50%, IT WAS NOT ADDED
TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL LIKELY BE IFR TO
LIFR CEILINGS AT TIMES AS THE PRECIPITATION SWEEPS THROUGH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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