188
FXUS63 KFGF 251017
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
417 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS DUE TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
- A FEW FAST MOVING SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
THIS WEEKEND COULD BRING LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG WITH
WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH SUNDAY. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS AND 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING LEVEL
IMPACTS ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM CALIFORNIA INTO MONTANA THEN FLATTENS
TO MORE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA AND MANITOBA.
ONE STRONGER SHORT WAVE GIVING WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA TODAY. A BIT WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE INTL BORDER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW 500 MB SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA AND WE GET BACK INTO THE MORE WEST TO EAST FLOW
ALOFT.
..WINTRY MIX TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS 925 MB SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 40 KTS WITH 850 MB SOUTH WINDS TO 50 KTS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
ND AND NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z FRI.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SOUNDINGS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH VALLEY
INTO NW MN SHOW A DISTINCT FREEZING DRIZZLE PATTERN WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS UP PAST 900 MB BUT A DRY LATER 870 MB AND
UP WHERE TEMPS ARE ABOVE 0C. SATURATIONG DOES OCCUR AROND THE
870-800 MB LAYER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THUS THINKING MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SET UP FOR
THE VALLEY INTO MN DEVELOPING AS WE GO THRU TODAY....THEN
TONIGHT FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MN WHERE
OUTPUT GIVES UP TO 0.10 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN CENTERED AROUND BELTRAMI AND HUBBARD COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE WAS 80 PERCENT FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS IN PARTS OF THE
RRV AND MN SO IN CONJUNCTION WITH DLH AND MPX DID A WINTER WX
ADVISORY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RED RIVER VALLEY FARGO AND NORTH
AND THEN EAST THRU NORTHWEST MN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
VALID THRU 12Z FRI.
..WEEKEND
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALONG THE INTL
BORDER WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE BORDER AS WELL
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. OVERALL THE
MORE OUTLIER CANADIAN MODEL WITH ITS STRONGER SOLUTION IS NOW
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH MEAN ENSEMBLES GIVEN BY ECMWF AND GFS.
THIS SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE AREA SAT OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING EAST. BUT AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT....PROBS OF
0.5 INCH 40 PERCENT ALONG THE BORDER TO 10 PERCENT SOUTH. PROBS
FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH FROM ALL ENSEMBLES AND NBM SINGLE DIGITS.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 35 KTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT LIKELY AFTER ANY
FALLING SNOW ENDS. WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND CURRENTLY NOT
BLOWABLE EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN,
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WILL NEED TO COME FROM FALLING SNOW.
BLOWING SNOW TABLE GIVEN TEMPS SUNDAY NOON OF 5 DEGREES AND WIND
SPEED 30 KTS INDCDIATE 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. KEPT THE 10 PCT WARNING MESSAGING BUT THAT
IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS OF NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THIS ROUND. FOR
THE FIRST SIX HOURS, STRATUS MAY GO IN AND OUT AT A FEW TAF
SITES DRIVING CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR. FLURRIES MAY MIX IN WITH
THIS, BUT THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE CEILINGS AND NOT
VISIBILITY. SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT BUT THE
GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION.
AFTER 12Z, CEILINGS WILL LOWER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE, ICE PELLETS, AND INTERMITTENT FREEZING RAIN, WITH THE
MAIN THREATS AT FAR AND GFK. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT SHOULD
BYPASS OUR TAF SITES. TVF AND GFK COULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN LATE IN THE DAY, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST THREAT IS THE MORNING.
EITHER IFR CEILINGS OR FOG SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, LIKELY DRIVING DOWN FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO
IFR/LIFR. HOW CONSISTENT THIS IS AND HOW WIDESPREAD IT IS IS IN
QUESTION, BUT RIGHT NOW EXPECT AT LEAST LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. PRECIPITATION AFTER THE MAIN WAVE EXITS
REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL, AND SOUNDINGS MAINLY SUPPORT FZDZ IN
THE AFTERNOON, SO BE WARY OF POTENTIAL CONTINUED AVIATION
IMPACTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR MNZ005-006-009-017-024-032.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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