907
FXUS63 KFGF 251732
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A GLAZE OF ICE.
- A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS WEEKEND
COULD BRING LESS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
WHILE RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
MORNING FROM BEMIDJI BACK NORTHWEST TOWARDS HALLOCK AND NORTH
TO LAKE OF THE WOODS NOTHING HAS YET BEEN OBSERVED AT THE GROUND
INDICATING THERE IS STILL A DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE THAT WE
NEED TO SATURATE. NEVERTHELESS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND GLAZE OF ICE STILL EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
MONITORING ANY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND SEEING IF THEY
START ADVECTION MORE NORTH/EAST. SO QUESTION REMAINS IF/WHEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL START TODAY. HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN MORE IN
NORTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM CALIFORNIA INTO MONTANA THEN FLATTENS
TO MORE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, MINNESOTA AND MANITOBA.
ONE STRONGER SHORT WAVE GIVING WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA TODAY. A BIT WEAKER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THRU THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE INTL BORDER THIS WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW 500 MB SHIFTS
EAST OF THE AREA AND WE GET BACK INTO THE MORE WEST TO EAST FLOW
ALOFT.
..WINTRY MIX TODAY AND TONIGHT
LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TODAY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS 925 MB SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
TO 40 KTS WITH 850 MB SOUTH WINDS TO 50 KTS DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
ND AND NW MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z FRI.
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SOUNDINGS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH VALLEY
INTO NW MN SHOW A DISTINCT FREEZING DRIZZLE PATTERN WITH
SATURATED LOW LEVELS UP PAST 900 MB BUT A DRY LATER 870 MB AND
UP WHERE TEMPS ARE ABOVE 0C. SATURATION DOES OCCUR AROUND THE
870-800 MB LAYER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THUS THINKING MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SET UP FOR
THE VALLEY INTO MN DEVELOPING AS WE GO THRU TODAY....THEN
TONIGHT FREEZING RAIN SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MN WHERE
OUTPUT GIVES UP TO 0.10 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN CENTERED AROUND BELTRAMI AND HUBBARD COUNTIES.
CONFIDENCE WAS 80 PERCENT FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS IN PARTS OF THE
RRV AND MN SO IN CONJUNCTION WITH DLH AND MPX DID A WINTER WX
ADVISORY THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT RED RIVER VALLEY FARGO AND NORTH
AND THEN EAST THRU NORTHWEST MN AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
VALID THRU 12Z FRI.
..WEEKEND
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY ALONG THE INTL
BORDER WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE BORDER AS WELL
WITH COLD FRONT MOVING THRU OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. OVERALL THE
MORE OUTLIER CANADIAN MODEL WITH ITS STRONGER SOLUTION IS NOW
MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH MEAN ENSEMBLES GIVEN BY ECMWF AND GFS.
THIS SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW THRU THE AREA SAT OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING EAST. BUT AMOUNTS LOOK QUITE LIGHT....PROBS OF
0.5 INCH 40 PERCENT ALONG THE BORDER TO 10 PERCENT SOUTH. PROBS
FOR MORE THAN 1 INCH FROM ALL ENSEMBLES AND NBM SINGLE DIGITS.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 35 KTS SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT LIKELY AFTER ANY
FALLING SNOW ENDS. WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND CURRENTLY NOT
BLOWABLE EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS FAR NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN,
ANY BLOWING SNOW ISSUES WILL NEED TO COME FROM FALLING SNOW.
BLOWING SNOW TABLE GIVEN TEMPS SUNDAY NOON OF 5 DEGREES AND WIND
SPEED 30 KTS INDICATE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. KEPT THE 10 PCT WARNING
MESSAGING BUT THAT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS OF NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS PATCHY MVFR/IFR BECOME
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO LOCALLY VLIFR SHUTTING DOWN MANY LOCAL
AIRPORTS FOR THE COMING 12-18 HOURS. AS FREEZING DRIZZLE RAMPS
UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WIDELY
WILL BE UNDER 500FT AND VIS UNDER 2SM. IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR
EXPECTED 12Z WITH SOME MAYBE CREEPING BACK INTO MVFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-039.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>004-
007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR MNZ005-006-009-017-024-032.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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