871
FXUS63 KFGF 251921
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A GLAZE TO A TENTH OF ICE.
- A FEW SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS WEEKEND
COULD BRING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF
30-40 MPH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENTLY WE FIND OURSELVES BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT BRING WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 200MB BRINGING WAA AS THE THERMAL RIDGE IS CENTERED MORE TO
OUR EAST. WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB AND A SATURATED LAYER BELOW THAT
COMBINED WITH THE BROAD ASCENT VIA WAA WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE
AND SOME POCKETS OF TRUE FREEZING RAIN CONFINED MORE TO NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND POINTS EAST WILL OCCUR TODAY WHICH IS WHY WE
CURRENTLY HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA UNTIL 6AM FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE IS ERODED BY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE WINDOW WILL OPEN FOR MORE POTENT TROUGHING
TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE INTL BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION AND BRING DROPPING TEMPS AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS MINIMAL NEW SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THE CURRENTLY
SNOWPACK WONT BE VERY PRONE TO BLOWING THE MAIN IMPACTS MIGHT BE
COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS. LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGING MOVES BACK ONSHORE WITH THE CONCLUSION OF THE ONGOING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT AND DOMINANT HUDSON BAY TROUGHING TO EAST
WILL PREVAIL A NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NEW
YEAR BEFORE THINGS LOOK TO GET POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AGAIN.
-TODAY
LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR AND MESOANALYSIS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY SEEMS
TO BE ROOTED BETWEEN 500-700MB ATOP THE DRY LAYER. AS 925-850MB WAA
INCREASES ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IN THE COMING FEW HOURS FZDZ
SOME BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH POSSIBLE FOR
PLACES FROM THE RED LAKES TO BEMIDJI. GIVEN THAT ROAD TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION
THIS POSES THE RISK TO CREATE SLICK TRAVEL AND IN COMBINATION WITH
THE HOLIDAYS WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 6AM
FRIDAY TO HELP MESSAGE THIS RISK. WHILE MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
POORLY HANDLE THE START TIME OF DRIZZLE THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS
SEEMS TO BE THAT ACCUMULATING ICE MAY START AS EARLY AS 3-6PM AND NO
LATER THAN 8-9PM.
-WEEKEND
WHILE ROADS THAT BECOME SLICK MAY STAY THAT WAY FOR A FEW DAYS THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE BEING SHOWN BY MODELS THE AREAS EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING AT THE VERY LEAST ON SATURDAY
HELPING TO CLEAR THINGS UP. THE BAD NEWS (YES I KNOW THERE'S ALWAYS
BAD NEWS) THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN COMING BY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING SUNDAY HIGHS INTO THE
TEENS (NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA) AND SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE ELSE.
FOR MONDAY HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS (MINNESOTA) AND TEENS (NORTH
DAKOTA). WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS NORTH OF HWY 2 LOOKING TO DROP
INTO THE -10S WILL SEE WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE -20S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVING AT LEAST A SHOT AT COLD WEATHER CRITERIA (-30 WIND
CHILLS). WHILE WE HAVE BEEN MESSAGING THE CHANCE FOR MINOR WINTER
IMPACTS IN THIS SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIOD IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 1/2" OF SNOW IN A 24 HOURS PERIOD
AND WIND GUSTS SIMPLY EXCEEDING 30MPH IS LOW ENOUGH THAT OUTSIDE A
LITTLE DRIFTING THIS SHOULD BE MARGINALLY WORSE THAN AN AVERAGE DAY
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE EXISTING SNOWPACK IS NO LONGER BLOWABLE.
AS NW FLOW PREVAILS WE FOND OURSELVES IN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR
CLIPPER TYPE ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER THERE IS LIMITED AGREEMENT
ON TIMING OR TRACK OF ANY GIVEN WAVE AND THUS CONFIDENCE HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK IS LOW ON THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS PATCHY MVFR/IFR BECOME
WIDESPREAD LIFR TO LOCALLY VLIFR SHUTTING DOWN MANY LOCAL
AIRPORTS FOR THE COMING 12-18 HOURS. AS FREEZING DRIZZLE RAMPS
UP ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON CIGS WIDELY
WILL BE UNDER 500FT AND VIS UNDER 2SM. IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR
EXPECTED 12Z WITH SOME MAYBE CREEPING BACK INTO MVFR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-039.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>004-
007-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ005-006-
009-017-024-032.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
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