943
FXUS63 KFGF 261752
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. LESS
THAN 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IN AREA
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 25-35 MPH. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
SOME OF THE CAMS START TO BRING IN SOME SHOWERS AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION STARTS TO KICK IN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT
RADAR RETURNS THAT ARE IN WESTERN ND DO NOT SEEM AT THIS POINT
TO BE REACHING THE GROUND, BUT DID INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS IN
NORTHEASTERN ND FOR A TIME LATER TODAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPING, WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF A HALF OR EVEN QUARTER OF
A MILE VISIBILITY ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG IN THAT REGION WITH PATCHY
FOG ELSEWHERE, AND WILL WATCH FOR ANY NEEDED HEADLINES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 939 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
CLOUDS DO NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON, SO
INCREASED SKY COVER FOR THE DAY. STILL GETTING SOME LIGHT BR IN
DOWN TO 3 MILES IN PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA, AND
WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG MENTION GOING MAINLY FOR BLENDING WITH
NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE FAIRLY QUIET WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO LOS
20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FRONT HAS PASSED THRU ALL
AREAS WITH A NORTHWEST WIND 8 TO 15 KTS. SOME LIGHT FOG REMAINS
IN A FEW AREAS, BUT GENERALLY 3SM OR ABOVE VSBY. NOT EXPECTING A
LOT OF CHANGE THRU TODAY....SOME CLEARING HOLES MAY WELL DEVELOP
OR MOVE IN FROM MANITOBA, BUT BEST BET IS TO CONTINUE MORE
PESSIMISTIC ROUTE IN REGARDS TO CLEARING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. 500 MB FLOW FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEST ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IS MORE WESTERLY NOW AND THIS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN OPEN THE GATES TO INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVES MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER
REGION.
COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS EXITED
THE AREA, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALL AREAS. THICKER FOG THAT WAS
IN NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN HAS IMPROVED AS WINDS TURNED
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN SPEED. THE BAND OF FREEZING RAIN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT HAS ALSO MOVED WELL EAST. DID DROP THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY PRIOR TO 9Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ROAD
CONDITIONS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THE MAJORITY OF THE
FREEZING RAIN AND RESULTANT ISSUES WERE IN THE BISMARCK AREA
NORTHEAST TOWARD GRAND FORKS THEN TOWARD THIEF RIVER FALLS WHERE
0.05 LIQUID WAS COMMON.
THE FREEZING RAIN PART OF THE FORECAST IS GONE. WEAK SFC HIGH
OVER THE AREA IS ALREADY MOVING EAST WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AGAIN
IN WESTERN ND AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FOG PRESENT
THERE. SOME FOG IS MOVING INTO WESTERN FCST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. NBM AND MODEL BLEND SKY COVER FORECASTS TOO OPTIMISTIC
SO WENT A LOT CLOUDIER THRU TODAY THOUGH SOME CLEARING HOLES
ARE PRESENT IN WESTERN MANITOBA. BUT PREFER TO ERR ON SIDE OF
CLOUDIER GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND LACK OF ANY COLD, DRIER AIRMASS
MOVING IN.
..WEEKEND
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THRU FAR SOUTHERN CANADA SATURDAY
WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST AS WELL. THIS SFC LOW TO BE
NEAR MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER SATURDAY EVENING WITH A NORTHWEST
WIND AND COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT OVER THE FCST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INITIALLY ANY PRECIP CHANCES
REGULATED TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF MN MORE TIED TO WARM
ADVECTION AND NEAR THE SFC LOW TRACK WHERE WINTRY MIX ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE. IMPACTS FROM THIS DONT APPEAR TO BE ADVISORY LEVEL.
WHAT IS GOING ON BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS A 500 MB LOW AND TROUGH
WHICH DOES MOVE EAST AND UPPER LOW IS NOW FOLLOWING WHAT THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL SHOWED A FEW DAYS AGO AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH
DIGS SOUTHEAST THRU NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHWEST OR WEST
CENTRAL MN BY LATE SUNDAY. SO WHAT APPEARS TO OCCUR WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS SUNDAY. QPF IS A
FEW HUNDREDTHS (NBM IS NEAR ZERO WITH WPC QPF SHOWING A FEW
HUNDREDTHS LIKELY BETTER). NET RESULT IS HALF INCH OF SNOW MAYBE
AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY. WINDS THOUGH DONT APPEAR TO BE
THAT STRONG...WITH MAX COLD ADVECTION AND 850 MB WIND MAX WELL
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE DIGGING SHORT
WAVE. DURING THE LIGHT SNOWFALL SUNDAY DATA SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WINDS 20-25 MPH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. PUTTING THESE INTO THE BLOWING
SNOW TABLE WITH 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW TO BLOW SHOWS 30-40 PCT
CHANCE OF LOW IMPACTS WITH SPORADIC BLOWING SNOW VSBY ISSUES
AND 20 PCT CHANCE OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW (AREAS
1/2SM OR BELOW VSBY). THIS WOULD BE IN FALLING LIGHT SNOW OR 0-3
HOURS AFTER THE SNOW FALLS. WOULD NEED THE INCH OF NEW SNOW TO
BLOW...IF HALF INCH THE PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF IMPACTS DROP
FURTHER.
BRIEF COLD AIR SURGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM MOVING THRU MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN MN LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY A LARGER, LONGER LASTING COLD AIRMASS MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES, AND KDVL IS EVEN DOWN TO LIFR.
COULD SEE A FEW SITES COME UP TO MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BUT OVERALL IFR TO LIFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY SO FAR IS MOSTLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE, BUT
EXPECT SOME FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITY HALF MILE OR UNDER IS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE KDVL AND KFAR DROPPING BELOW 1
MILE VIS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
MODELS ARE CALLING FOR 1/4 MILE, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
THAT LOW CURRENTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITY OR EVEN
CEILINGS LATE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING VFR OR EVEN
MUCH MVFR, STAYING IFR OR LOWER. WINDS THAT ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
8 TO 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
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