595
FXUS63 KFGF 270359
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
959 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
- A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY VISIBILITY
IMPACTS AS WINDS GUST TO 45 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
DENSE FOG IS SPREADING THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS SUCH, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THIS. IT SEEMS FEASIBLE GIVEN MODEL
TRENDS THAT FURTHER EXPANSIONS WILL BE NECESSARY AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. FURTHER EAST,
FREEZING RAIN CONTINUES TO BE OFF AND ON AND THE ADVISORY WILL
BE ABLE TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT AS SCHEDULED BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
FOG CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS EVENING WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR FOG FROM HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE AND SATURATION ONGOING, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
THE RETURNS ON RADAR CONTINUE TO ONLY SPARSELY BRING REPORTS OF
PRECIPITATION, LARGELY WITH THE HELP OF THE DRY LAYER BETWEEN
850-700MB. SOME SATURATION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING TO FACILITATE
FREEZING RAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR AN
SPS/ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND WINDS RETURNING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE ND/MANITOBA
BORDER WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR AND TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
WEST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A FEW
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS. HOWEVER, EXACT
TIMING AND TRACKS STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN SO WILL KEEP WHAT THE
NBM MEAN GIVES US.
..LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIATION IN
THE STRENGTH AND IF SLEET IS MOST LIKELY OR FREEZING RAIN. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 40
PERCENT IN OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, AND CHANCES FOR A
GLAZE OF ICE LOOK TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT. THERE
IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI, SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MESSAGING. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER ICY GROUND, BUT UNKNOWN AT
THIS POINT HOW DENSE IT WILL BE WITH PROBABILITIES FOR LOW VIS
WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE NBM AND HREF. WILL MENTION FOG BUT
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
..FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH RECENT FREEZING RAIN, A BIT MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS ALL BUT THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOMORROW, THE SNOW PACK WILL NOT BE BLOWABLE.
WINDS SHOULD GUST ABOVE 40 MPH FAIRLY EASILY WITH SOME DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALTHOUGH THE
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AREN'T QUITE OVER OUR AREA LIKE LAST
WEEK'S BLIZZARD EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING
UP TO AN INCH, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW
VISIBILITY AS THE FALLING SNOW IS BLOWN AROUND SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH, WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND NOT LOOKING LIKE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SNOW
FOR WARNING CRITERIA. STILL WILL MENTION IN GRIDS AS WELL AS
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS BUT WILL NOT MESSAGE THIS EVENT ON ITS OWN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD, MAINLY
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. FOG MAY ALSO BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
LIFR THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT DVL.
SOME RETURNS ARE CROPPING UP ON RADAR, HOWEVER GIVEN DRY AIR
ABOVE THE SURFACE, IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND. IF IT DOES, IT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE AS FZRA, HENCE THE
PROB30 GROUPS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR FZRA. THIS
WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE AWAY FROM
ALL TAF SITES BY 6Z AT THE LATEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ003-029-030-
040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ006-
008-009-013>017-022-023.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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