846
FXUS63 KFGF 270938
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
- CHANGES TO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SNOW CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED AND IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW HAS
INCREASED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
MAIN 500 MB TROUGH IN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND SEND A COLD
FRONT THRU LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MORE SO SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM INITALLY IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA
DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN SD BY 00Z MON. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TO ITS EAST AND AN INCREASE IN
SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST THRU NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUES FOR
SUNDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK.
..FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THIS MORNING
WE NEED A GOOD ARCTIC FRONT TO WASH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WARMTH OUT OF HERE. NOT TODAY IT WONT HAPPEN. AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THRU THIS
MORNING...THOUGH SOME CLEARING AND LESS FOG TRYING TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF SE ND AT 09Z. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE
FOG WEST CENTRAL MN INTO E ND. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADV OUT FOR
THESE AREAS THRU 18Z, BUT NOT ALL AREAS ARE SEEING DENSE FOG,
SOME 1/2 TO 1 MILE BUT NOT WORTH SPLITTING HAIRS. 500 MB SHORT
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA
PARKLAND REGION THIS MORNING. SNOW WITH THIS. 850/925 MB WINDS
30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARMER
AIR INTO E ND AND NW MN THRU MID MORNING THEN WARM ADVECTION IS
ONLY OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AT 18Z BEFORE MOVING OUT.
RADAR OBS AND SOUNDINGS WOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR IN SOME CASES LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN NE ND
AND NW MN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 INTO THE MORNING.
ALBEIT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT AS SOME
RADAR RADAR RETURNS EXTEND SOUTH OF THE SNOW AREA FROM MANITOBA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND MOVING INTO THE DVL REGION. NON TREATED
ROADS WILL BE SLICK. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP TREATED ROADS NOT
IN TERRIBLE SHAPE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AT 18Z WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT INTIALLY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN NOT
STRONG. BUT SHOULD HELP REDUCE ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES.
..SUNDAY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WAS CAUGHT ON BY THE 00Z SAT MODEL SUITE AND
ENSEMBLES. UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO EASTERN SD SUNDAY LATE AND
OUTH AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS AND
INTENSIFIES INTO WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SCENARIOS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS INCLUDING 500 MB LOW MOVING EAST AND WRAPPING
WITH SFC IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND GIVING HEAVY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. ALSO IN THIS SCENARIO
MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED BACK AROUND INTO NW/WC MN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NBM SHOWS PROB OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW 06Z SUN TO 06Z MON
60 PERCENT IN NW MN (TVF, BJI) AND 30-40 PERCENT GFK/FAR AND
CONSIDERABLY LESS FARTHER WEST. 925 MB WINDS PEAK SUNDAY EVENING
00Z-06Z WITH 40-45 KTS...BUT WILL HAVE 35 KTS OR SO FOR MIXING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE RRV AND ESP THE MN PART OF THE RRV.
THIS IS A RELATIVELY SUDDE CHANGE SO WILL BE INTERESTING HOW
DAYTIME MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND
WPC PROBWSSI CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS ARE 60 PERCENT
IN NW/WC MN DUE TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE
DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE WEST OF THE RED RIVER.
USING BLOWING SNOW TABLE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IF ONLY 1 INCH OF
SNOW TO BLOW VS 2 INCHES. 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO BLOW WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 24 KTS LATE SUNDAY WOULD PUT AREAS WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS INTO ADVISORY RANGE EASILY....VS 1 INCH WOULD NOT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THANKS TO FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS. ADDITIONALLY, FZDZ HAS BEEN OBSERVEDAT SOME LOCATIONS,
SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FZDZ ARISES AT ANY TAF SITE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST HCANCES ARE AT TVF AND GFK.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BUT EXPECT FOG AND CEILINGS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ008-016-
026>030.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-022-
027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-
004>009-013>017-022>024.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page