748
FXUS63 KFGF 271550
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOG
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SOUTH OF HWY 2.
- WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW GREATER THAN 2" AND BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES FAVOR A SCENARIO WITH MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER ON SUNDAY/MONDAY BUT MORE ON THAT IN THE AFTERNOON
UPDATE. AS FOR THE CURRENT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS WILL
UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA UNTIL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND FGEN WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL THUS REMAIN IN
EFFECT AND NEED TO POSSIBLY BE EXTENDED IF THINGS DONT CLEAR OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES BY 18Z.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THOUGH NO SURFACE REPORTS, RADAR RETURNS MOVING THRU DVL BASIN
SUGGEST RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EXISTS SO DID ADD THAT
REGION TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY THRU NOON. THIS IS OCCURRING ON
SOUTH EDGE OF WAVE MOVING THRU MANITOBA. OTHERWISE FOG IS SOCKED
IN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
MAIN 500 MB TROUGH IN ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST AND SEND A COLD
FRONT THRU LATER TODAY WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MORE SO SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM INITIALLY IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA
DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN SD BY 00Z MON. THIS WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TO ITS EAST AND AN INCREASE IN
SNOW AND WIND IMPACTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS JUST TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST THRU NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUES FOR
SUNDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEEK.
..FOG, LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS THIS MORNING
WE NEED A GOOD ARCTIC FRONT TO WASH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WARMTH OUT OF HERE, WONT HAPPEN TODAY THOUGH. AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THIS
MORNING... THOUGH SOME CLEARING AND LESS FOG TRYING TO MOVE
INTO PARTS OF SE ND AT 09Z. OTHERWISE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WEST CENTRAL MN INTO E ND. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OUT FOR THESE AREAS THRU 18Z, BUT NOT ALL AREAS ARE
SEEING DENSE FOG, SOME 1/2 TO 1 MILE BUT NOT WORTH SPLITTING
HAIRS. 500 MB SHORTWAVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA PARKLAND REGION THIS MORNING.
850/925 MB WINDS 30 KTS FROM THE SOUTH ADVECTING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR INTO E ND AND NW MN THRU MID MORNING
THEN WARM ADVECTION IS ONLY OVER LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA AT 18Z
BEFORE MOVING OUT. RADAR OBS AND SOUNDINGS WOULD KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR IN SOME CASES LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN IN NE ND AND NW MN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2
INTO THE MORNING. ALBEIT MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT CANNOT RULE
IT OUT AS SOME RADAR RADAR RETURNS EXTEND SOUTH OF THE SNOW
AREA FROM MANITOBA INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND MOVING INTO THE DVL
REGION. NON TREATED ROADS WILL BE SLICK. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP TREATED ROADS NOT IN TERRIBLE SHAPE.
WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AT 18Z WITH A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
BUT INITIALLY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN
NOT STRONG. BUT SHOULD HELP REDUCE ANY DENSE FOG ISSUES.
..SUNDAY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE BY THE 00Z SAT MODEL SUITE AND
ENSEMBLES. UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO EASTERN SD SUNDAY LATE AND
OUT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BE LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS AND
INTENSIFIES INTO WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SCENARIOS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS INCLUDING 500 MB LOW MOVING EAST AND WRAPPING
WITH SFC IN WESTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND GIVING HEAVY
SNOW FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN. ALSO IN THIS SCENARIO
MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED BACK AROUND INTO NW/WC MN WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
NBM SHOWS PROB OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW 06Z SUN TO 06Z MON
60 PERCENT IN NW MN (TVF, BJI) AND 30-40 PERCENT GFK/FAR AND
CONSIDERABLY LESS FARTHER WEST. 925 MB WINDS PEAK SUNDAY EVENING
00Z-06Z WITH 40-45 KTS...BUT WILL HAVE 35 KTS OR SO FOR MIXING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE RRV AND ESP THE MN PART OF THE RRV.
THIS IS A RELATIVELY SUDDEN CHANGE SO WILL BE INTERESTING HOW
DAYTIME MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS. BASED ON 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND
WPC PROBWSSI CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS ARE 60 PERCENT
IN NW/WC MN DUE TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE
DROP OFF QUICKLY ONCE WEST OF THE RED RIVER.
USING BLOWING SNOW TABLE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IF ONLY 1 INCH OF
SNOW TO BLOW VS 2 INCHES. 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO BLOW WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 24 KTS LATE SUNDAY WOULD PUT AREAS WITH THOSE
CONDITIONS INTO ADVISORY RANGE EASILY....VS 1 INCH WOULD NOT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, IF NOT ALL WILL REMAIN IN FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THRU THE DAY, IMPROVEMENT HOPEFULLY IN VSBY STARTS THIS
AFTN/EVE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT. BUT UNTIL
THEN VLIFR, LIFR, AND IFR CONDITIONS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-026>030-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-022-
027>032-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-
004>009-013>017-022>024.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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