540
FXUS63 KFGF 271951
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
151 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LINGERING TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING OUT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- WINTER IMPACTS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW GREATER THAN 2" AND BLOWING SNOW LEADING TO TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM CAN ALREADY BE NOTED ACROSS MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
ALBERTA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE WITH MODERATE FGEN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
ACTING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SHUTTING OFF PRECIP TO THE WEST OF
THE WHEREVER THE FGEN SETS UP. WITH THIS THERE ARE A FEW
SCENARIOS BUT WE BOIL IT DOWN INTO TWO PRIMARY ONES DOWN BELOW.
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA ON MONDAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND BLOWING SNOW COMES TO AN END WITH COLD
CONDITIONS ON THE BACK SIDE. BEYOND THE COLD A FEW SHORTWAVES
AMID THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING BRING SHOTS OF LIGHT SNOW
AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT MORE TRANQUIL (AND LESS FOGGY)
WEATHER EXPECTED.
- ONGOING FOG
ADVECTION FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT NOT CONTIGUOUS
FOR THE MOST PART AS WARM AIR TRAVERSES THE SATURATED SNOWPACK
WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND THICK STRATUS PREVENTING ANY GOOD
SURFACE HEATING AND THUS KEEPING US IN THIS DECEMBER WINTRY
SOUP. AT LEAST WITH IT BEING BELOW FREEZING ITS A FREEZING FOG
SO THE ALL THE TREES ARE NICE AND PRETTY (WE'LL IGNORE THAT ITS
ALSO MAKING THE ROADS ICY PER DOT REPORTS)... GOTTA FIND A
BRIGHT SIDE I TELL MYSELF.
- SUNDAY/MONDAY SNOW
AN EASTERN SCENARIO WHERE THE STRONGEST FGEN LINES UP FROM
DETROIT LAKE TO ROSEAU OR EAST OF THERE. OR A WESTERN SCENARIO
WHERE IT LINES UP SLIGHT EAST OF THERE BRING HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO
THE VALLEY (GREATER THAN 2"). IN BOTH CASES TO THE EAST OF THE
FGEN EXPECT 2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 6-7"
(10% CHANCE). HOWEVER IN THE WESTERN CASE STRONG WINDS/GUSTS OF
40MPH OR GREATER ARE LIKELY TO OVERLAP WITH AREAS THAT SEE 2"
LEADING TO A 60% CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF SNOW IS NO
LONGER FALLING A A 100% CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF SNOW
REMAINS FALLING DURING STRONG WINDS (EVEN 1" OVER 6 HOURS WOULD
SATISFY THIS FALLING SNOW CRITERIA). AS OF NOW THE EASTERN
SCENARIO WHERE STRONG WINDS DO NOT OVERLAP WITH 2" OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEY SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED OUTCOME BY GUIDANCE BUT THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID SHIFT FROM ALMOST NOTHING TO NOW A POSSIBLE
BLIZZARD IN THE LAST 36 HOURS SO NOT SELLING THE HOUSE ON WHAT
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS AS THINGS REMAIN FLUID. SO AS A FLOOR
THIS FEELS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT BETWEEN A WIDESPREAD 1"
(VALLEY) TO 3-5" IN THE MN NORTHWOODS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BLOWING SNOW (DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH NEW SNOW FALLS
IN A GIVEN LOCATION). AS A CEILING COULD SEE THIS GOING AS
SEVERE AS A BLIZZARD IN THE RRV (2" OF NEW SNOW IN COMBINATION
WITH WIND GUSTS > 40MPH) AND A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE MN
NORTHWOODS WITH 4-7" OF NEW SNOW AND SCATTERED BLOWING SNOW IN
MORE OPEN AREAS. AS SUCH WITH THE WIDE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL
CEILING HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
RED RIVER VALLEY (BLIZZARD POTENTIAL) AND THE MINNESOTA
NORTHWOODS (>6" OF SNOW POSSIBLE). WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EVEN AT THE CEILING THE THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ADVISORY WITH UP
1-2" OF NEW SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. TIMING SUNDAY MORNING
(MIDNIGHT TO 6AM) TO MONDAY MORNING (6AM)
- MONDAY
OTHER THAN THE RECOVERY FROM WHATEVER THIS EVENT ENDS UP BEING
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS. WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S FOR ALL WITH MORE NORTHERN AREAS STILL
FAVORED TO FALL INTO THE -30S MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SHOULD BE ONLY FOR A SHORT DURATION (6PM SUNDAY TO
NOON MONDAY) BUT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINTER STORM COULD POSE
AN EXTRA LEVEL OF IMPACT TO TRAVELERS THAT ARE UNPREPARED.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHERWISE LOOKS SEASONAL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH ALL DAYS FAILING TO REACH INTO THE
20S (MINUS TUESDAY WHICH COLD REACH NEAR FREEZING)
- TUESDAY
A WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW 1-2" (DIDNT LOOK MUCH AS THIS
WITH TOMORROW'S SYSTEM THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD)
AND SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPS
FALL BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
CONDITIONS ARE WIDELY UNFAVORABLE FOR GENERAL AVIATION AND I;M
SURE COMMERCIAL AVIATION ISNT MUCH OF A FAN EITHER. IFR TO LIFR
VIS REMAINS FOR MOST SITES (BJI THE LONE EXCEPTION AT 3SM). CIGS
HOWEVER UNDER 500FT AREA WIDE AND DO NOT LOOK TO CLIMB ABOVE
1000FT UNTIL TOMORROW. SNOW BEGINS WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING
WITH INCREASING WINDS LEADING TO BLOW SNOW AND ANY IMPROVEMENTS
THAT HAD BEEN MADE AS FOG DISSIPATES WILL BE WIPED OUT AS
BLOWING/FALLING SNOW DROPS VIS BACK DOWN BELOW 2SM. NORTHERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 30-35KTS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF POOR
VISIBILITY BUT CIGS OF 500-1500FT WONT HELP THINGS MUCH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001>003-
007-029>031-040.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-
032.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
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