645
FXUS63 KFGF 280539
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES WILL MAKE TRAVEL
DANGEROUS.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR EAST THE 2 INCH SNOW LINE GETS,
WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARISE WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.
- EAST OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE TO GET 6 INCHES
OR MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOWBAND ALONG THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS
ZONE, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE EAST.
LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES EXIST FOR BOTH THE WESTERN PORTIONS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ON THE WEST
END TO UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WARNING, BUT THIS DEPENDS ON IF AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW FALLS OUT THERE. RIGHT NOW, THAT
PROBABILITY IS ABOUT 50%, SO THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR A
BLIZZARD WARNING OUT THERE. TO THE EAST, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
HONING IN ON THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING MAINLY
WITHIN THE BLIZZARD WARNING, ALTHOUGH CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE
NECESSARY TO SEE IF WARNING IMPACTS ARISE WITHIN THE EASTERN
ADVISORY AREA.
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS
EVENING DUE TO IMPROVEMENTS IN VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 929 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 4 HOURS. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING, SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY THEN. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WE PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER
SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
FOG CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SPATIALLY THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN. THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
REGARDING THE UPCOMING WINTER STORM, THE FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
SNOW DOES APPEAR TO BE TAKING SHAPE IN NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.
CLOSE MONITORING WILL BE NECESSARY OF THIS BAND TO SEE WHAT
TRACK IT TAKES, AS IT WILL DETERMINE IF WE GET HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH. LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES ON WHERE AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
CONTINUE, SO NO UPGRADES OCCURRED ON THIS UPDATE FOR THE WINTER
STORM WATCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED WEST OF THE
WATCH AS IT IS EXPECTED AT LEAST BLOWING SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL IMPACT THIS REGION BEGINNING JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM CAN ALREADY BE NOTED ACROSS MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
ALBERTA IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE WITH MODERATE FGEN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW
ACTING AS AN INVERTED TROUGH SHUTTING OFF PRECIP TO THE WEST OF
WHEREVER THE FGEN SETS UP. WITH THIS THERE ARE A FEW SCENARIOS
BUT WE BOIL IT DOWN INTO TWO PRIMARY ONES DOWN BELOW. AS THE LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA ON MONDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS AND BLOWING SNOW COMES TO AN END WITH COLD CONDITIONS ON
THE BACK SIDE. BEYOND THE COLD A FEW SHORTWAVES AMID THE
NORTHWEST FLOW COULD BRING SHOTS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW BUT MORE TRANQUIL (AND LESS FOGGY) WEATHER
EXPECTED.
- ONGOING FOG
ADVECTION FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT NOT CONTIGUOUS
FOR THE MOST PART AS WARM AIR TRAVERSES THE SATURATED SNOWPACK
WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND THICK STRATUS PREVENTING ANY GOOD
SURFACE HEATING AND THUS KEEPING US IN THIS DECEMBER WINTRY
SOUP. AT LEAST WITH IT BEING BELOW FREEZING ITS FREEZING FOG SO
ALL THE TREES ARE NICE AND PRETTY (WE'LL IGNORE THAT ITS ALSO
MAKING THE ROADS ICY PER DOT REPORTS)... GOTTA FIND A BRIGHT
SIDE I TELL MYSELF.
- SUNDAY/MONDAY SNOW
SCENARIO 1) WHERE THE STRONGEST FGEN LINES UP FROM DETROIT
LAKES TO ROSEAU OR EAST OF THERE. SCENARIO 2) WHERE IT LINES UP
SLIGHT EAST OF THERE BRINGING HEAVIER SNOWFALL TO THE VALLEY
(GREATER THAN 2"). IN BOTH CASES TO THE EAST OF THE FGEN EXPECT
2-4" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 6-7" (10% CHANCE).
HOWEVER IN THE WESTERN CASE STRONG WINDS/GUSTS OF 45MPH OR
GREATER ARE LIKELY TO OVERLAP WITH AREAS THAT SEE 2" LEADING TO
A 60% CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF SNOW IS NO LONGER
FALLING AND A 100% CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF SNOW
REMAINS FALLING DURING STRONG WINDS (EVEN 1" OVER 6 HOURS WOULD
SATISFY THIS FALLING SNOW CRITERIA). AS OF NOW THE EASTERN
SCENARIO WHERE STRONG WINDS DO NOT OVERLAP WITH 2" OF SNOW IN
THE VALLEY SEEMS TO BE THE FAVORED OUTCOME BY GUIDANCE BUT THERE
HAS BEEN A RAPID SHIFT FROM ALMOST NOTHING TO NOW A POSSIBLE
BLIZZARD IN THE LAST 36 HOURS SO NOT SELLING THE HOUSE ON WHAT
THE CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS AS THINGS REMAIN FLUID. SO AS A FLOOR
THIS FEELS LIKE A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT BETWEEN A WIDESPREAD 1"
(VALLEY) TO 3-5" IN THE MN NORTHWOODS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
BLOWING SNOW (DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH NEW SNOW FALLS IN A GIVEN
LOCATION). AS A CEILING ONE COULD SEE THIS GOING AS SEVERE AS A
BLIZZARD IN THE RRV (2" OF NEW SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH WIND
GUSTS > 45MPH) AND A WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE MN NORTHWOODS
WITH 4-7" OF NEW SNOW AND SCATTERED BLOWING SNOW IN MORE OPEN
AREAS. AS SUCH WITH THE WIDE UNCERTAINTY AND POTENTIAL CEILING
HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE RED RIVER
VALLEY (BLIZZARD POTENTIAL) AND THE MINNESOTA NORTHWOODS (>6" OF
SNOW POSSIBLE). WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY EVEN AT THE
CEILING THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ADVISORY WITH UP TO 1-2" OF NEW
SNOW AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. TIMING SUNDAY MORNING (MIDNIGHT TO
6AM) TO MONDAY MORNING (6AM)
- MONDAY
OTHER THAN THE RECOVERY FROM WHATEVER THIS EVENT ENDS UP BEING
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS. WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S FOR ALL WITH MORE NORTHERN AREAS STILL
FAVORED TO FALL INTO THE -30S MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SHOULD BE ONLY FOR A SHORT DURATION (6PM SUNDAY TO
NOON MONDAY) BUT IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINTER STORM COULD POSE
AN EXTRA LEVEL OF IMPACT TO TRAVELERS THAT ARE UNPREPARED.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD OTHERWISE LOOK SEASONAL IF NOT
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH ALL DAYS FAILING TO REACH INTO THE
20S (MINUS TUESDAY WHICH COLD REACH NEAR FREEZING)
- TUESDAY
A WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW 1-2" (DIDNT LOOK MUCH AT
THIS WITH TOMORROW'S SYSTEM THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD) AND SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WHILE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, EXPECT LOW END MVFR TO HIGH
END IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A WINTER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES, WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS AT GFK
AND FAR, WITH LOWER GUSTS OUTSIDE THESE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST
1/2SM AT TIMES, WITH PREDOMINANT 1/4SM AT GFK/FAR/TVF EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH WHEN THIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ONCE FALLING SNOW ENDS, SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITY UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD AT LEAST IMPROVE WITH SUNSET,
SO IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW SHOULD AT LEAST MARKEDLY DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z, BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
WINDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ005-008-013>015-022-027-028-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 3 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ006-009-016-017-023-024.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...PERROUX
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