189
FXUS63 KFGF 281023
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
423 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD 1/4SM
VISIBILITY REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG EASTERN RRV EDGE.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THRU MOST ARES 2-6 INCHES
- PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS SUB 30 BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN RRV SUNDAY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THIS SYSTEM I HAVE A FEELING WILL THROW SEVERAL CURVE BALLS OUR
WAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS BEEN NOTICED THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS IS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF IT IS MORE DUE SOUTH TO
NORTH. AREA OF SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING ALMOST
DUE NORTH AS INDICATED BY MESO ANALYSIS OF 500 MB WINDS.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS NOTED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE CENTERED IN
BETWEEN BIS AND JMS AT 09Z. THIS HAS BEEN WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM WEST OF ABERDEEN UP TO WEST OF
JAMESTOWN AND MOVING INTO DEVILS LAKE.
THUS THE EASTWARD ADVANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN THOUGHT FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS. WE DO HAVE GENERAL BROAD MOIST ADVECTION
MOVING INTO THE RRV AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG YET TO CAUSE ISSUES 15-22 KT AND
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL FALLING VSBYS REMAIN GOOD. WITH THE SLOWER
ADVANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW, FEEL LIKE IDEA OF STARTING A BLIZZARD
WARNING AT 12Z ( 6 AM) WAS TOO SOON AS CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT
INDICATIVE OF THE WARNING. IT WAS EARLIER PUSHED BACK FROM 09Z
TO 12Z START TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE RRV
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN ENDING FROM THE NORTH
LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT. LONGEST RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOW WILL BE
SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
6 INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGHEST AT 40-50 PERCENT FARGO TO ELBOW
LAKE IN BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO ROSEAU,
BEMIDJI AREAS BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL STRUGGLE A LOT TO
REACH BAUDETTE. CONSENSUS FROM WFO DLH IS TO DROP ADVISORY FOR
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY AS LATEST SNOWFALL FORECASTS SHOW THEM
UNDER 1 INCH. DID ALSO DROP A STRIPE OF COUNTIES FROM BLIZZARD
WARNING BACK TO WINTER WX ADVISORY SUCH AS ROSEAU TO WADENA AS
WINDS JUST NOT GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FOR ROSEAU AREA
SNOWFALL IS MORE MARGINAL, EVEN FOR ADVISORY. BEMIDJI AREA TOO
ON THE EDGE...HAVE 1-3 FOR NOW.
925 MB WINDS AND BEST MIXING TO 900 MB LEVEL OCCURS 21Z SUN TO
03Z MON WITHIN THE RRV WITH 40 KTS TO MIX DOWN, ESP SOUTH PARTS.
CONSIDERING NEW SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND IT WILL BE A BLOWABLE SNOW WITH 3 INCHES
AND WIND SUSTATINED 25 KTS OR HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEGREES GIVE 100 PCT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS AND THIS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE RRV AND EAST EDGE OF THE RRV AS WELL (TVF/DTL)
BUT MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVE.
..WIND CHILLS SUNDAY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO WILL GIVE WIND
CHILLS SUB 30 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN RRV SO
EVENTUALLY A COLD WX ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WHILE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE, EXPECT LOW END MVFR TO HIGH
END IFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD. A WINTER SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES, WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS AT GFK
AND FAR, WITH LOWER GUSTS OUTSIDE THESE TAF SITES. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO AT LEAST
1/2SM AT TIMES, WITH PREDOMINANT 1/4SM AT GFK/FAR/TVF EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH WHEN THIS OCCURS IS UNCERTAIN.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ONCE FALLING SNOW ENDS, SO
DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS TO VISIBILITY UNTIL JUST
AFTER THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS SHOULD AT LEAST IMPROVE WITH SUNSET,
SO IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW SHOULD AT LEAST MARKEDLY DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z, BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH ELEVATED OVERNIGHT
WINDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-009-016-017-023-024-028-032.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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