456
FXUS63 KFGF 281235
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS AND CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD 1/4SM
VISIBILITY REMAINS GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT WITHIN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG EASTERN RRV EDGE.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THRU MOST ARES 2-6 INCHES
- PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS SUB 30 BELOW ZERO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN RRV SUNDAY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 11Z SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW VERY NEAR THE
MT/ND BORDER WEST OF DICKINSON MOVING SSE. IT IS FOREAST TO BE
IN THE YANKTON SD/SIOUX CITY AREA BY 00Z. CONTINUE SOUTH TO
NORTH 500 MB JET AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRODUCING THE
NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF SNOW THAT IS INCHING ITS WAY EASTWARD BUT
WILL BE OVERSPREAD THE RED RIVER VALLEY 7-8 AM. THIS SNOW BAND
WILL LIKELY BE OVER VALLEY THRU EARLY AFTERNOON AT LEAST THEN
PIVOT SOUTHWARD BY DAYS END. HOW FAR EAST MAIN SNOW BAND MAKES
IT IS UNCLEAR BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY HIGH THAT IT WILL
REACH THIEF RIVER, PARK RAPIDS AT LEAST AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
FARTHER EAST THAN THAT INTO BEMIDJI, ROSEAU AND LESS SURE ABOUT
BAUDETTE.
OVERALL BLIZZARD START TIME 15Z SEEMS GOOD AND FORSEE NO OTHER
CHANGES. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT 15Z AND WHILE NORTH-NORTHWEST
WINDS NOT AT BLIZZARD STRENGTH ENOUGH GUSTS 25 KTS RANGE TO
BRING LOWER VSBY. MAIN WIND WITH GUSTS 35KTS OR MORE STILL ON
TRACK FOR MID AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THIS SYSTEM I HAVE A FEELING WILL THROW SEVERAL CURVE BALLS OUR
WAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS BEEN NOTICED THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS IS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF IT IS MORE DUE SOUTH TO
NORTH. AREA OF SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING ALMOST
DUE NORTH AS INDICATED BY MESO ANALYSIS OF 500 MB WINDS.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS NOTED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE CENTERED IN
BETWEEN BIS AND JMS AT 09Z. THIS HAS BEEN WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM WEST OF ABERDEEN UP TO WEST OF
JAMESTOWN AND MOVING INTO DEVILS LAKE.
THUS THE EASTWARD ADVANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN THOUGHT FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS. WE DO HAVE GENERAL BROAD MOIST ADVECTION
MOVING INTO THE RRV AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG YET TO CAUSE ISSUES 15-22 KT AND
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL FALLING VSBYS REMAIN GOOD. WITH THE SLOWER
ADVANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW, FEEL LIKE IDEA OF STARTING A BLIZZARD
WARNING AT 12Z ( 6 AM) WAS TOO SOON AS CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT
INDICATIVE OF THE WARNING. IT WAS EARLIER PUSHED BACK FROM 09Z
TO 12Z START TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE RRV
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN ENDING FROM THE NORTH
LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT. LONGEST RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOW WILL BE
SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
6 INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGHEST AT 40-50 PERCENT FARGO TO ELBOW
LAKE IN BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO ROSEAU,
BEMIDJI AREAS BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL STRUGGLE A LOT TO
REACH BAUDETTE. CONSENSUS FROM WFO DLH IS TO DROP ADVISORY FOR
LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY AS LATEST SNOWFALL FORECASTS SHOW THEM
UNDER 1 INCH. DID ALSO DROP A STRIPE OF COUNTIES FROM BLIZZARD
WARNING BACK TO WINTER WX ADVISORY SUCH AS ROSEAU TO WADENA AS
WINDS JUST NOT GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FOR ROSEAU AREA
SNOWFALL IS MORE MARGINAL, EVEN FOR ADVISORY. BEMIDJI AREA TOO
ON THE EDGE...HAVE 1-3 FOR NOW.
925 MB WINDS AND BEST MIXING TO 900 MB LEVEL OCCURS 21Z SUN TO
03Z MON WITHIN THE RRV WITH 40 KTS TO MIX DOWN, ESP SOUTH PARTS.
CONSIDERING NEW SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND IT WILL BE A BLOWABLE SNOW WITH 3 INCHES
AND WIND SUSTATINED 25 KTS OR HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEGREES GIVE 100 PCT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS AND THIS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE RRV AND EAST EDGE OF THE RRV AS WELL (TVF/DTL)
BUT MAINLY THIS AFTN/EVE.
..WIND CHILLS SUNDAY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO WILL GIVE WIND
CHILLS SUB 30 BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN RRV SO
EVENTUALLY A COLD WX ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SNOW BAND MOVING INTO GFK/FAR AT START OF TAF PERIOD THEN IT IS
JUST WHEN WILL VSBY LOWER INTO THE 1/2 OR 1/4SM RANGE IN BLOWING
SNOW. I DO THINK IT HAPPEN AND MOST LIKELY MID AFTN. DVL VSBY
IMPROVING SOME AS SNOW EXISTS AND BJI AREA NOT AS BAD AS LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING MINOR VSBY IMPACTS, THEN A BIT HEAVIER THIS
AFTN. TVF IS ON THE EDGE OF HEAVIER SNOW AND WIND SO 1/2SM MAY
BE LOWEST IT WILL GET THERE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-039-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
009-016-017-023-024-028-032.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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