358
FXUS63 KFGF 281748
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD IMPACTS WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED 1/4SM VISIBILITY THE OUTSIDE THE THE RED RIVER
VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS 2-5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS OF 5-7" POSSIBLE.
- PERIOD OF WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE NORTHERN RRV LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SNOWFALL IS PILING UP OUT THERE WITH A SOLID COATING ON THE
PARKING LOT LIKELY AN INCH OR MORE THAT I CAN ALREADY SEE
BLOWING AROUND A BIT EVEN WITH WINDS ONLY AROUND 17G25
CURRENTLY. BLIZZARD STILL SEEMS ON TRACK BUT WILL OBVIOUSLY
DEPEND ON WINDS PICKING UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
DID A POP UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENTLY WIDESPREAD
NATURE OF THE SNOW AND TO GET SOME MORE DETERMINISTIC VALUES IN
THERE. OTHER THAN THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WHILE WE
MONITOR THE NEED FOR A POSSIBLE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE
BLIZZARD WARNING INTO AREAS LIKE COOPERSTOWN, VALLEY CITY, AND
LISBON FOR THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WATER VAPOR LOOP AT 11Z SHOWING THE 500 MB LOW VERY NEAR THE
MT/ND BORDER WEST OF DICKINSON MOVING SSE. IT IS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE YANKTON SD/SIOUX CITY AREA BY 00Z. SOUTH TO NORTH 500 MB
JET AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS PRODUCING THE NORTH-SOUTH
BAND OF SNOW THAT IS INCHING ITS WAY EASTWARD BUT WILL
OVERSPREAD THE RED RIVER VALLEY 7-8 AM. THIS SNOW BAND WILL
LIKELY BE OVER THE VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN PIVOT SOUTHWARD BY DAYS END. HOW FAR EAST MAIN SNOW BAND
MAKES IT IS UNCLEAR BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS PRETTY HIGH THAT IT
WILL REACH THIEF RIVER, PARK RAPIDS AT LEAST AND SOME LIGHT SNOW
FARTHER EAST THAN THAT INTO BEMIDJI, ROSEAU AND LESS SURE ABOUT
BAUDETTE.
OVERALL BLIZZARD WARNING START TIME 15Z SEEMS GOOD AND FORESEE
NO OTHER CHANGES. SNOW WILL BE ONGOING AT 15Z AND WHILE NORTH-
NORTHWEST WINDS NOT AT BLIZZARD STRENGTH ENOUGH GUSTS 25 KTS
RANGE TO BRING LOWER VSBY. MAIN WIND WITH GUSTS 35KTS OR MORE
STILL ON TRACK FOR MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE
VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THIS SYSTEM I HAVE A FEELING WILL THROW SEVERAL CURVE BALLS OUR
WAY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WHAT HAS BEEN NOTICED THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS IS THE UPPER LOW IN EASTERN MONTANA IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF IT IS MORE DUE SOUTH TO
NORTH. AREA OF SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS MOVING ALMOST
DUE NORTH AS INDICATED BY MESO ANALYSIS OF 500 MB WINDS.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS NOTED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE CENTERED IN
BETWEEN BIS AND JMS AT 09Z. THIS HAS BEEN WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW BAND HAS BEEN LOCATED FROM WEST OF ABERDEEN UP TO WEST OF
JAMESTOWN AND MOVING INTO DEVILS LAKE.
THUS THE EASTWARD ADVANCE HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN THOUGHT FROM
EARLIER FORECASTS. WE DO HAVE GENERAL BROAD MOIST ADVECTION
MOVING INTO THE RRV AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE NOT STRONG YET TO CAUSE ISSUES 15-22 KT AND
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL FALLING VSBYS REMAIN GOOD. WITH THE SLOWER
ADVANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW, FEEL LIKE IDEA OF STARTING A BLIZZARD
WARNING AT 12Z ( 6 AM) WAS TOO SOON AS CONDITIONS LIKELY NOT
INDICATIVE OF THE WARNING. IT WAS EARLIER PUSHED BACK FROM 09Z
TO 12Z START TIME.
MODEL GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THIS AREA OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE RRV
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND THEN ENDING FROM THE NORTH
LATE AFTN INTO TONIGHT. LONGEST RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOW WILL BE
SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST 6
INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGHEST AT 40-50 PERCENT FARGO TO ELBOW LAKE
IN BLIZZARD WARNING AREA. SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO ROSEAU, BEMIDJI
AREAS BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL STRUGGLE A LOT TO REACH
BAUDETTE. CONSENSUS FROM WFO DLH IS TO DROP ADVISORY FOR LAKE OF
THE WOODS COUNTY AS LATEST SNOWFALL FORECASTS SHOW THEM UNDER 1
INCH. DID ALSO DROP A STRIPE OF COUNTIES FROM BLIZZARD WARNING
BACK TO WINTER WX ADVISORY SUCH AS ROSEAU TO WADENA AS WINDS
JUST NOT GOING TO BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FOR ROSEAU AREA SNOWFALL
IS MORE MARGINAL, EVEN FOR ADVISORY. BEMIDJI AREA TOO ON THE
EDGE...HAVE 1-3 FOR NOW.
925 MB WINDS AND BEST MIXING TO 900 MB LEVEL OCCURS 21Z SUN TO
03Z MON WITHIN THE RRV WITH 40 KTS TO MIX DOWN, ESP SOUTH PARTS.
CONSIDERING NEW SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES ANTICIPATED IN THE VALLEY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND IT WILL BE A BLOWABLE SNOW WITH 3 INCHES
AND WIND SUSTAINED 25 KTS OR HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURE OF 5
DEGREES GIVE 100 PCT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS AND THIS SHOULD
OCCUR WITHIN THE RRV AND EAST EDGE OF THE RRV AS WELL (TVF/DTL)
BUT MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..WIND CHILLS SUNDAY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS WITH TEMPS BELOW ZERO WILL GIVE WIND
CHILLS BELOW -30 IN NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHERN RRV SO EVENTUALLY
A COLD WX ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
LARGELY UNDER 1 MILE VISIBILITY OUT THERE WITH THE TREE AND
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AROUND BEMIDJI KEEPING THAT AREA MORE IN
2-3 MILE RANGE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. AS WINDS PICK
UP THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT PERSISTENT 1/4SM AT GFK AD FAR WITH IN
AND OUT 1/4SM AT TVF AND DVL THROUGH 06Z. VIS IMPROVES ONE SNOW
ENDS AND GOES VFR FOR ALL LIKELY BY 12Z MONDAY. CIGS SLOW TO
RECOVER BUT POTENTIALLY VFR FOR ALL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH IFR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND 12 HOURS FOR
AREAS LIKE FAR AND BJI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND
LIFT. WINDS N/NW AT 20 GUSTING 30KTS AS THE NORM FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-039-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
009-016-017-023-024-028-032.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page