843
FXUS63 KFGF 282324
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
524 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD IMPACTS WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SCATTERED
1/4SM VISIBILITY THE OUTSIDE THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TODAY/TONIGHT.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS 2-5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS OF 5-7" POSSIBLE.
- WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
NORTHERN RRV LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
LARGER DIFFERENCES START TO ARISE IN CLUSTERS ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF WESTERN RIDGING AND ITS DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON THE STEERING
FLOW ALOFT. IN THE SHORT TERM THERE IS OBVIOUSLY THE STRONG LOW
THAT CAN BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLIZZARD IMPACTS
TONIGHT. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM IS COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PUTTING US IN
THE STRIKE ZONE FOR OPEN WAVE CLIPPER ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE SCOPE OF IMPACTS FOR TWO NOTED WAVES; ONE TUESDAY
MORE TO OUR EAST AFFECTING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SECOND
ONE WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
ELEVATED WINDS. SIMPLY PUT, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AFTER
TODAYS STORM WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW. LATER IN THE
PERIOD SCENARIOS BECOME A BROAD RANGE WITH HYBRID LOW TYPE
ACTION (STRONGER SYSTEMS LIKE TODAYS) OR CLIPPER TYPE ACTIVITY.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
-TODAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST NOW CENTERED IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BROAD DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW AND FAVORABLE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
COMBINATION WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED DGZ AND POCKETS OF FGEN FROM
850-700MB ARE LEADING TO A BROAD SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH REPORTS ALREADY
TOPPING 2-4" IN PLACES LIKE DEVILS LAKE AND GRAND FORKS AS OF
NOON AND ANOTHER 1-2" FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH 3-5" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 THERE WILL CERTAINLY
BE A BOUNTY OF NEW SNOW TO BLOW AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THE CORE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVES ACROSS THE VALLEY LEADING TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CURRENT GUSTS OF 30-35 TO 35-40
MPH WITH WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 12Z HREF SHOWS A 100% PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS GREATER
THAN 35 MPH FROM 4PM TO MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AND A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH DURING THAT PERIOD. IT WAS ALWAYS
IN THE FORECAST THAT THIS WOULDN'T BE THE SAME MAGNITUDE
BLIZZARD WE HAD 10 OR SO DAYS AGO BUT IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE
MUCH MORE MARGINAL THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. OVERALL THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RETAIN THE CURRENT HEADLINES BUT CAN
SEE WHY PEOPLE WILL SAY WE MIGHT HAVE CRIED WOLF ON THIS LOOKING
ONLY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE.
- MONDAY
DURING THE RECOVERY FROM THIS EVENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S FOR
ALL WITH SOME AREAS FAVORED TO FALL INTO THE -30 TO -35 RANGE
THUS MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SHOULD BE ONLY
FOR A SHORT DURATION (BETWEEN 6PM TODAY TO 9AM MONDAY) BUT IN
COMBINATION WITH THE WINTER STORM COULD POSE AN EXTRA LEVEL OF
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS THAT ARE UNPREPARED.
- TUESDAY
A WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW 1-2"
(60% CHANCE FOR 1" AND 40% FOR 2") MAINLY AFFECTING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND BRINGING
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPS FALL BEHIND
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS AND BLOWING SNOW. IMPROVEMENTS WILL BEGIN SLOWLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH AND FALLING SNOW MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR
TOMORROW WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-
030-039-053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-039-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
013>015-022-027-029>031-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
009-016-017-023-024-028-032.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...PERROUX
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