561
FXUS63 KFGF 290547
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD IMPACTS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
NORTHERN RRV LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO INCLUDE THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY, AND ESPECIALLY KEEPING COUNTIES ON THE
MINNESOTA SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO ONGOING OBSERVATIONS FROM
CROOKSTON UP THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF DONALDSON THAT INDICATE
ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOT UNHEARD OF AS IT IS
TYPICAL FOR THIS CORRIDOR TO CONTINUE WHILE IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ONGOING IN THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE VALLEY. FURTHER SOUTH,
FALLING SNOW AND INCREASED WINDS ARE CONTINUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MARKED IMPROVEMENT.
ZONES REMOVED FROM THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL STILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW, BUT PREDOMINANT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS IN PROBABILITY AND
COVERAGE. WHILE HEADLINES GO UNTIL 12Z IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT EARLY EXPIRATION IS ON THE TABLE, BUT THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WINDS STICK AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES INDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT,
WEBCAMS AND REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONGOING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN OPEN COUNTRY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HAVING
SAID THAT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO DIMINISH SO WE
SHOULD START TO SEE WINDS DIE DOWN, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN
VALLEY. WHILE THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT, IT
DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE THE
NORTHERN VALLEY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
FURTHER WEST, FALLING SNOW HAS ENDED AND SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN QUITE A
BIT AND WIND CHILLS ARE ALREADY HITTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA, SO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY WAS
CHANGED TO START IMMEDIATELY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FALLING SNOW ENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ONGOING IN SOME LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH THIS IS IN
MAINLY RURAL AREAS AND NOT PERSISTENT. WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW, SO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS
SHOULD CONTINUE. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
DOWNGRADE/CANCELLATION OF THE ONGOING BLIZZARD WARNING, BUT WE
DO WANT TO SEE HOW THE NEW SNOWPACK RESPONDS TO INCREASING WINDS
FIRST. REGARDLESS, TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE
LARGER DIFFERENCES START TO ARISE IN CLUSTERS ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF WESTERN RIDGING AND ITS DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON THE STEERING
FLOW ALOFT. IN THE SHORT TERM THERE IS OBVIOUSLY THE STRONG LOW
THAT CAN BE NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES
BRINGING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLIZZARD IMPACTS
TONIGHT. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM IS COOLER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH RIDGING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS PUTTING US IN
THE STRIKE ZONE FOR OPEN WAVE CLIPPER ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN THE SCOPE OF IMPACTS FOR TWO NOTED WAVES; ONE TUESDAY
MORE TO OUR EAST AFFECTING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SECOND
ONE WEDNESDAY THAT COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
ELEVATED WINDS. SIMPLY PUT, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AFTER
TODAYS STORM WITH AT LEAST CHANCES FOR MORE SNOW. LATER IN THE
PERIOD SCENARIOS BECOME A BROAD RANGE WITH HYBRID LOW TYPE
ACTION (STRONGER SYSTEMS LIKE TODAYS) OR CLIPPER TYPE ACTIVITY.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET LATER IN THE
PERIOD.
-TODAY
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST NOW CENTERED IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BROAD DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LOW AND FAVORABLE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN
COMBINATION WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED DGZ AND POCKETS OF FGEN FROM
850-700MB ARE LEADING TO A BROAD SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT. WITH REPORTS ALREADY
TOPPING 2-4" IN PLACES LIKE DEVILS LAKE AND GRAND FORKS AS OF
NOON AND ANOTHER 1-2" FOR THOSE LOCATIONS ALONG WITH 3-5" OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 THERE WILL CERTAINLY
BE A BOUNTY OF NEW SNOW TO BLOW AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THE CORE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MOVES ACROSS THE VALLEY LEADING TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CURRENT GUSTS OF 30-35 TO 35-40
MPH WITH WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. 12Z HREF SHOWS A 100% PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS GREATER
THAN 35 MPH FROM 4PM TO MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS AND A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH DURING THAT PERIOD. IT WAS ALWAYS
IN THE FORECAST THAT THIS WOULDN'T BE THE SAME MAGNITUDE
BLIZZARD WE HAD 10 OR SO DAYS AGO BUT IT IS TURNING OUT TO BE
MUCH MORE MARGINAL THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. OVERALL THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO RETAIN THE CURRENT HEADLINES BUT CAN
SEE WHY PEOPLE WILL SAY WE MIGHT HAVE CRIED WOLF ON THIS LOOKING
ONLY FROM AN IMPACTS PERSPECTIVE.
- MONDAY
DURING THE RECOVERY FROM THIS EVENT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE -20S FOR
ALL WITH SOME AREAS FAVORED TO FALL INTO THE -30 TO -35 RANGE
THUS MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SHOULD BE ONLY
FOR A SHORT DURATION (BETWEEN 6PM TODAY TO 9AM MONDAY) BUT IN
COMBINATION WITH THE WINTER STORM COULD POSE AN EXTRA LEVEL OF
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS THAT ARE UNPREPARED.
- TUESDAY
A WEAK CLIPPER LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW 1-2"
(60% CHANCE FOR 1" AND 40% FOR 2") MAINLY AFFECTING PARTS OF
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND BRINGING
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING AS TEMPS FALL BEHIND
THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SLOWLY AFTER 06Z, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO
BELOW 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. BLOWING SNOW MAY CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR IFR AFTER THE MAIN
IMPROVEMENTS, BUT THIS SHOULD NO LONGER BE AN ISSUE AFTER 18Z AT
THE LATEST FOR ALL TAF SITES. LOW AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THEREAFTER WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ030-039-053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-027-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ028>030-038-
039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ049-052.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>003-007-029-
030-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-004-005-
007-008-013>016.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-003-022-
023-027>031-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ004-
013>015-022-027-031.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ008-009-
016-017-023-024-028-032.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...PERROUX
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