477
FXUS63 KFGF 020957
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
357 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT (TRACE TO HALF INCH). CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND WINTRY MIX SUNDAY RRV AND EAST. SUB ADVISORY IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
OVER THE NEXT 4-7 DAYS WE WILL SEE A CHANGE IN THE 500 MB
PATTERN AS THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE, MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND IN ITS PLACE WILL BE MORE MODERATE
IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK WITH 500 MB
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. IN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE
SEEN MANY STORMS SYSTEM, BUT THIS TIME THE JET LOOKS LESS ACTIVE
AND LESS WET IN THE PACIFIC OFF WASHINGTON COAST.
UNTIL THIS FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH. ONE IS A 500 MB WAVE THAT MOVES FROM NORTHEAST BC AND
NW ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERLAKE REGION NORTH OF WINNIPEG
BY 12Z SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS AT 850 IS RATHER WEAK
AND MAIN VORTICITY WITH SHORT WAVE IS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THUS
THINKING IS THE BETTER CHANCE THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT IN OUR AREA BUT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN CANADA. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH,
LIKELY A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH, MORE SO IN NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN TONIGHT.
NEXT WAVE IS INITIALLY MOVES EAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA OF
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SUN. BUT A SECOND 500 MB IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EAST THRU NORTH DAKOTA AND
BE NEAR DULUTH 06Z MON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST AND 850 MB 30-40 KT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING TWO AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY
AFTN....ONE NORTH OF THE BORDER NORTH OF WINNIPEG AND THEN OTHER
DEVELOPS MORE SO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THUS IDEA IS FOR AN
INCREASING AREA OF PRECIPITATION (SNOW) DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTN
AS WAVE MOVES EAST. WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS SUNDAY MIDDAY OR AFTN IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY POTENTIALLY BE
IN EASTERN ND OR THE RRV. CONCENSUS OF MODEL DATA THOUGH
SUPPORTS MORE DEVELOPMENT 18Z SUN TO 00Z MON IN AREA IN BETWEEN
BEMIDJI AND DULUTH. THIS IS WHAT NBM GRIDS HIGHLIGHT, THOUGH DO
THINK IT MAY BE A BIT LOW ON QPF AND POPS. BUT FOR THE TIME
BEING LEFT AS IS. DID UP QPF TOWARD WPC FOR TONIGHT IN COORD
WITH WFO DLH, TO GET SNOWFALL AROUND 0.5 INCH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AROUND 850 MB SUGGEST A WARM LAYER SUN AFTN MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AND IF PRECIP WOULD FORM A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. WPC WSSI-P HAS 10 PCT CHANCE OF MINOR
IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MN FOR THIS POSSIBILTY SUNDAY AFTN.
NOT AS COLD WEEK AND AS IT STANDS NOW SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IN
PLAY THRU THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
ALL AVIATION IMPACTS FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TIED TO THE
ONGOING STRATUS THAT WILL OSCILLATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BENEATH THIS STRATUS, EXPECT
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE, MORE LIKELY TO BE MVFR
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS RAPIDLY FALL AS YOU GET
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH DAKOTA, SO IFR CEILINGS MAY ARISE AT
FAR BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO NOT ADD
TO THE TAF AT THIS TIME. BENEATH THIS STRATUS, INTERMITTENT
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE GUIDANCE LIKES TO ERODE STRATUS 6
HOURS FROM NOW, GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE STRUGGLES WITH STRATUS AND
PREVIOUS PATTERNS LIKE THIS TEND TO HAVE STRATUS AROUND LONGER,
AT LEAST 030 CLOUD DECKS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT PREVAILING FOR ALL
TAF SITES IN NORTH DAKOTA. STRATUS MAY EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND AFFECT TVF AND BJI, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
STRATUS LOCATION IS LOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS OWING TO TERRAIN BEING A
PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE FOR DIRECTION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
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