125
FXUS63 KFGF 021213
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
613 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT (TRACE TO HALF INCH). CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND WINTRY MIX SUNDAY RRV AND EAST. SUB ADVISORY IMPACTS
ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN HOW FAR SOUTH DOES CLEARING
GET. WHERE IT CLEARS TEMPS DROP INTO THE 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. WHERE CLOUDY IT IS SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
UNCERTAIN HOW CLOUDS WILL BEHAVE TODAY, IDEA IS LIKELY THE
CLEAR/CLOUD LINE TO RELATIVELY STABLE THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDS
START MOVING BACK EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
OVER THE NEXT 4-7 DAYS WE WILL SEE A CHANGE IN THE 500 MB
PATTERN AS THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE, MOVES
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND IN ITS PLACE WILL BE MORE MODERATE
IF NOT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK WITH 500 MB
FLOW MORE WESTERLY. IN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE PAST MONTH WE HAVE
SEEN MANY STORMS SYSTEM, BUT THIS TIME THE JET LOOKS LESS ACTIVE
AND LESS WET IN THE PACIFIC OFF WASHINGTON COAST.
UNTIL THIS FLOW IS MORE WESTERLY THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO MOVE
THROUGH. ONE IS A 500 MB WAVE THAT MOVES FROM NORTHEAST BC AND
NW ALBERTA SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERLAKE REGION NORTH OF WINNIPEG
BY 12Z SATURDAY. WARM ADVECTION WITH THIS AT 850 IS RATHER WEAK
AND MAIN VORTICITY WITH SHORT WAVE IS NORTH OF THE BORDER. THUS
THINKING IS THE BETTER CHANCE THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS NOT IN OUR AREA BUT
NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN CANADA. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH,
LIKELY A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH, MORE SO IN NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN TONIGHT.
NEXT WAVE IS INITIALLY MOVES EAST OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH SNOW DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA OF
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SUN. BUT A SECOND 500 MB IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND EAST THRU NORTH DAKOTA AND
BE NEAR DULUTH 06Z MON. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES EAST AND 850 MB 30-40 KT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WILL BRING TWO AREAS OF WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY
AFTN....ONE NORTH OF THE BORDER NORTH OF WINNIPEG AND THEN OTHER
DEVELOPS MORE SO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THUS IDEA IS FOR AN
INCREASING AREA OF PRECIPITATION (SNOW) DEVELOPING SUNDAY AFTN
AS WAVE MOVES EAST. WHERE THIS DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURS SUNDAY MIDDAY OR AFTN IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY POTENTIALLY BE
IN EASTERN ND OR THE RRV. CONCENSUS OF MODEL DATA THOUGH
SUPPORTS MORE DEVELOPMENT 18Z SUN TO 00Z MON IN AREA IN BETWEEN
BEMIDJI AND DULUTH. THIS IS WHAT NBM GRIDS HIGHLIGHT, THOUGH DO
THINK IT MAY BE A BIT LOW ON QPF AND POPS. BUT FOR THE TIME
BEING LEFT AS IS. DID UP QPF TOWARD WPC FOR TONIGHT IN COORD
WITH WFO DLH, TO GET SNOWFALL AROUND 0.5 INCH. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES AROUND 850 MB SUGGEST A WARM LAYER SUN AFTN MAINLY
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN AND IF PRECIP WOULD FORM A
WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE. WPC WSSI-P HAS 10 PCT CHANCE OF MINOR
IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MN FOR THIS POSSIBILTY SUNDAY AFTN.
NOT AS COLD WEEK AND AS IT STANDS NOW SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IN
PLAY THRU THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE CLOUD TO CLEAR LINE
TODAY. THIS EARLY MORNING STARTING OFF MOSTL CLEAR GFK, TVF, BJI
AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS LANGDON-MAYVILLE-DETROIT LAKES SOUTH. NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CHANGE IN THIS THIS MORNING, BUT ANTICIPATE AN
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CLOUDS THIS AFTN. WITHIN THE CLOUD AREA,
SOME OF THE LOWER MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT LEAVING MID CLOUD.
HOW ALL THIS WORKS OUT TODAY IS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR DVL AND FAR
AS UNSURE IF SITES WILL BE PREDOMINATE MVFR OR VFR. KEPT FOR NOW
KFAR MVFR. LIGHT WINDS ALL DAY, VARIABLE 3-5KTS. TENDENCY IF ANY
WIND TO BE MORE NORTHWEST OR NORTH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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