649
FXUS63 KFGF 030046
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OF LESS THAN 1 INCH TONIGHT, WITH SUB-ADVISORY
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- LIGHT SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME FREEZING RAIN WILL BRING A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN ONGOING STRUGGLE TO SATURATE,
SO SNOWFALL OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL. THERE REMAINS THE
EXPECTATION TO SATURATE, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND
LIKELY SUBADVISORY AS PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW REMAIN BELOW 50% THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE STARTS TO COME OVER THE TOP OF
IT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION INTO MN BY SUNDAY. NEAR
ZONAL FLOW FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK, THEN FLOW STARTS
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES
START TO BRING THE TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE SPECIFICS. SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS TAKE A LOW FROM CO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT OTHER RUNS DO NOT AND SPREAD IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM, BUT AT THIS
POINT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MESSAGING.
..LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT
A FEW OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL DIG THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW TONIGHT. ONE SUCH VORT NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER IS ALREADY STARTING TO BRING SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TO
NORTH CENTRAL ND, AND THAT SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA LATER TONIGHT. NEITHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY STRONG OR HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT
COULD SEE A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF FLUFF. WARM AIR
ADVECTION KICKS IN TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING IN EASTERN ND, AND
THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER. HOWEVER,
BEST SATURATION IN THE LOW LAYERS AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL STAY TO OUR WEST, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR ICING LATER IN
THE WEEKEND.
..SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF FRONTOGENESIS
WITH THE SHORTWAVE COMING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR AND MORE MOISTURE INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW BOTH A WARM LAYER ALOFT
SUNDAY, AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOSS OF ICE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THAT COULD BRING A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. PROBABILITIES GIVEN BY NBM FOR
PRECIP TYPE ARE HIGHEST FOR SLEET, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE TO GIVE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION. GIVEN THAT ANY SMALL ICE
ACCUMULATION CAN CAUSE ISSUES, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD CLOSELY AND SEE IF ICING PROBABILITIES INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW BENEATH THE MAIN CLOUD DECK IS POSSIBLE
AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR, PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO BREAK UP ENOUGH IN SKY COVER TO BECOME VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. HAVING SAID THAT, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW
AT THIS TIME, SO EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST TO LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS
SUSTAINED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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