126
FXUS63 KFGF 031031
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
431 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 431 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, ENDING AROUND MIDDAY. NORTHWEST H5 FLOW
CONTINUES TODAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH WARMER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING
INTO THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER. THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE, LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, AND POSSIBLY SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS TODAY AND 20S SUNDAY, TRAVEL
IMPACTS COULD DEVELOP WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OBSERVED.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, H5 FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL, WITH
TROUGHING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES, SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SUPPORTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE FLOW INITIALLY. ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS MINIMAL, BUT THERE ARE
SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT DEVELOP STRONGER AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT COULD BRING POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEMS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME, AGREEMENT, AND
THUS CONFIDENCE, IS QUITE LOW IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION.
..WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL PTYPES AS WE HEAD INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUNS COLD SURFACE AIR. AS THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WARM, HOWEVER, AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS
DUE TO LIGHT ICING. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, SATURATION IS
STRONGEST WITHIN THE 1000MB TO 850MB LAYER, WHICH HAS TEMPS RANGING
FROM 0C TO -10C THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES,
WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORING WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER
NORTH, SOUNDINGS LOOKS SIMILAR; HOWEVER, A SCENARIO WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE COULD INHIBIT IMPACT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY TIED TO SNOW FOR ALL TAF
SITES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS TO
MVFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SNOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BRIEFLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AT WORST 2SM, ALTHOUGH MOST SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 6 AND 10 MILES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS WELL MAY
FALL TO 025-030 PUSHING THINGS TO MVFR. SNOW WILL MOVE AWAY BUT
CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY IN THE VICINITY OF BJI,
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF SNOW SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF BJI.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
BULK OF PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING MORE WEST OF OUR TAF
SITES. THAT SAID, DVL AND FAR MAY FALL TO MVFR IF THE STRATUS
DECK IS FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST, SO KEEP THAT IN MIND.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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