375
FXUS63 KFGF 031113
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
513 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS STARTING AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 431 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, ENDING AROUND MIDDAY. NORTHWEST H5 FLOW
CONTINUES TODAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH WARMER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING
INTO THE 850MB TO 700MB LAYER. THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE, LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, AND POSSIBLY SLEET AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE TEENS TODAY AND 20S SUNDAY, TRAVEL
IMPACTS COULD DEVELOP WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP IS OBSERVED.
HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, H5 FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL, WITH
TROUGHING BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES, SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SUPPORTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE FLOW INITIALLY. ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS MINIMAL, BUT THERE ARE
SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT DEVELOP STRONGER AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT COULD BRING POTENTIAL WINTER SYSTEMS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AT THIS TIME, AGREEMENT, AND
THUS CONFIDENCE, IS QUITE LOW IN ANY SINGLE SOLUTION.
..WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL PTYPES AS WE HEAD INTO
MIDDAY SUNDAY. INITIALLY, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERRUNS COLD SURFACE AIR. AS THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS WARM, HOWEVER, AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND SLEET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS
DUE TO LIGHT ICING. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, SATURATION IS
STRONGEST WITHIN THE 1000MB TO 850MB LAYER, WHICH HAS TEMPS RANGING
FROM 0C TO -10C THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES,
WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORING WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. FURTHER
NORTH, SOUNDINGS LOOKS SIMILAR; HOWEVER, A SCENARIO WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE COULD INHIBIT IMPACT POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT KDVL THIS MORNING WITH VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. KBJI WILL SEE INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH MID MORNING. LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BRINGS
CEILINGS NEAR MVFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS AT KDVL INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS EVENING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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