526
FXUS63 KFGF 040052
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX SUNDAY, WITH A TRACE TO 1" OF SNOW/SLEET AND A
GLAZE OF ICE STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES CONTINUE BENEATH A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. THIS WILL REMAIN THE ONLY IMPACT TONIGHT
AS WE AWAIT THE INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM TOMORROW WHICH WILL
APPROACH FROM WEST TO EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS SUCH, LIMITED
IMPACTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE EAST BY TOMORROW WITH A SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION VIA THERMAL RIDGING PROVIDING A
SETUP FAVORABLE FOR A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY. RIDGING THEN COMPLETELY
WASHES OUT AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD
AS A FEW WEEK DISTURBANCES SWEEP EAST BRINGING A FEW CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE (TRACK DEPENDENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE). LOOKING
TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK ZONAL FLOW TURNS SW WITH COLORADO
LOW TYPE ACTION LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES AND EVEN SYNOPTIC BASED
CONCEPTUAL MODELS BOTH SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION BUT WEAKNESS IN THE
BERMUDA RIDGING MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO LARGELY ESCAPE IMPACTS THIS TIME
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF US GETTING THE WORST OF IT POTENTIALLY. WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WOULD TREND MORE
TOWARDS SKEPTICISM FOR HEAVY SNOW IN OUR REGION.
-SUNDAY
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG FGEN WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT WITH A SATURATED
DGZ FALLING INTO A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (1-2C) WITH
A DEEP FREEZING LAYER BELOW THAT GETTING AS COLD AS -8 TO -10C
MAKING SLEET A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA THINGS LOOK TO
REMAIN SNOW WITH A 50/50 SHOT AT A SLUSHY 1" THOUGH MOST AREAS
LIKELY SEEING ONLY A FEW TENTHS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE THERE MAY
BE LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI ALOFT PROVING TO BE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
TYPE SETUP BUT AS ONE TRAVELS MORE INTO THE CORE OF THE PRECIP BAND
NUCLEI SATURATION INCREASES AND IT TURNS MORE TO A FREEZING RAIN
TYPE SOUNDING WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE WHERE THIS GRADIENT SETS UP. THE PROBLEM IS THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS TO DELAY HEADLINE
DECISIONS AND WILL THUS PUNT FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT A TRACE TO 1"
OF SNOW/SLEET AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTH
EDGE DECREASING IN ACCUMULATION WITH SOUTH/WESTWARD EXTEND MAINLY
AFFECTING AREAS OF NORTHWEST MINNNESOTA.
- TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LOOKS POISED TO
PRESENT ANOTHER FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPE SET UP SIMILAR THE ONE
PRECEDING THE DEC 28TH WINTER STORM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG BEING THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD TYPE OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THINGS THEN LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUT THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS MINIMAL IF NOT NON EXISTENT
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP INDICATES A COLORADO LOW IS POISED TO PASS INTO
THE MIDWEST FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. AS STATED ABOVE WOULD CURRENTLY LEAN
TOWARDS THE IMPACTS BEING MORE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT KNOWING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR THINGS TO CHANGE WOULD STRONGLY RECOMMEND MONITORING
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THAT HAS ALLOWED TVF AND GFK TO
BECOME VFR, BUT MOST GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH WHAT TO DO WITH
THIS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN PATTERN HISTORY, STRATUS IS
FORECASTED TO FILL IN ON THE ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE. THIS MEANS
WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH IT. THERE IS THE CHANCE
WE SEE NO STRATUS FILL IN WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS
AT GFK AND TVF (AND POSSIBLY MORE TAF SITES).
AS WE PROGRESS PAST 12Z, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LOWER END MVFR
TO IFR AS PRECIPITATION WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION AREA
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES, WITH FREEZING RAIN AND ICE PELLETS THE
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO, IT IS MORE
LIKELY YOU WILL SEE SNOW. RIGHT NOW, THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION
LINES SOUTHERN EXTENT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF FAR, HENCE THE LACK
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE ROUTINE TAF. OTHER TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION LASTING THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THE
TYPE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT IFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LINGER BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...PERROUX
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