098
FXUS63 KFGF 040532
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX SUNDAY, WITH A TRACE TO 1" OF SNOW/SLEET AND A
GLAZE OF ICE STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. FLURRIES CONTINUE TO INTERMITTENTLY LOWER VISIBILITY,
BUT ONLY TO 6 MILES AT WORST, SO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BUT THE PROBABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES CONTINUE BENEATH A STRATUS DECK ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. THIS WILL REMAIN THE ONLY IMPACT TONIGHT
AS WE AWAIT THE INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM TOMORROW WHICH WILL
APPROACH FROM WEST TO EAST JUST AFTER SUNRISE. AS SUCH, LIMITED
IMPACTS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL QUICKLY
TRANSLATE EAST BY TOMORROW WITH A SHORTWAVE CRESTING THE FLATTENING
RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION VIA THERMAL RIDGING PROVIDING A
SETUP FAVORABLE FOR A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY. RIDGING THEN COMPLETELY
WASHES OUT AND FLOW BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD
AS A FEW WEEK DISTURBANCES SWEEP EAST BRINGING A FEW CHANCES FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE (TRACK DEPENDENT AND LOW CONFIDENCE). LOOKING
TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK ZONAL FLOW TURNS SW WITH COLORADO
LOW TYPE ACTION LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES AND EVEN SYNOPTIC BASED
CONCEPTUAL MODELS BOTH SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION BUT WEAKNESS IN THE
BERMUDA RIDGING MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO LARGELY ESCAPE IMPACTS THIS TIME
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF US GETTING THE WORST OF IT POTENTIALLY. WILL
CERTAINLY BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WOULD TREND MORE
TOWARDS SKEPTICISM FOR HEAVY SNOW IN OUR REGION.
-SUNDAY
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM NEAR THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 700MB AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG FGEN WILL PROVIDE AMPLE ASCENT WITH A SATURATED
DGZ FALLING INTO A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING LAYER (1-2C) WITH
A DEEP FREEZING LAYER BELOW THAT GETTING AS COLD AS -8 TO -10C
MAKING SLEET A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA THINGS LOOK TO
REMAIN SNOW WITH A 50/50 SHOT AT A SLUSHY 1" THOUGH MOST AREAS
LIKELY SEEING ONLY A FEW TENTHS. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE THERE MAY
BE LOSS OF ICE NUCLEI ALOFT PROVING TO BE MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE
TYPE SETUP BUT AS ONE TRAVELS MORE INTO THE CORE OF THE PRECIP BAND
NUCLEI SATURATION INCREASES AND IT TURNS MORE TO A FREEZING RAIN
TYPE SOUNDING WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
POSSIBLE WHERE THIS GRADIENT SETS UP. THE PROBLEM IS THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS TO DELAY HEADLINE
DECISIONS AND WILL THUS PUNT FOR NOW. OVERALL EXPECT A TRACE TO 1"
OF SNOW/SLEET AND A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ALONG THE SOUTH
EDGE DECREASING IN ACCUMULATION WITH SOUTH/WESTWARD EXTEND MAINLY
AFFECTING AREAS OF NORTHWEST MINNNESOTA.
- TUESDAY
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION LOOKS POISED TO
PRESENT ANOTHER FREEZING DRIZZLE TYPE SET UP SIMILAR THE ONE
PRECEDING THE DEC 28TH WINTER STORM WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG BEING THE PREDOMINANT HAZARD TYPE OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THINGS THEN LOOK TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE MID WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUT THEN ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS MINIMAL IF NOT NON EXISTENT
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP INDICATES A COLORADO LOW IS POISED TO PASS INTO
THE MIDWEST FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH COLDER AIR ON ITS BACKSIDE AS
NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES HOLD. AS STATED ABOVE WOULD CURRENTLY LEAN
TOWARDS THE IMPACTS BEING MORE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT KNOWING THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR THINGS TO CHANGE WOULD STRONGLY RECOMMEND MONITORING
THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
TVF AND BJI SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE BEGINNING 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH FAR AND DVL SITTING AT MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 12Z. GFK WILL BE IN THE IN BETWEEN AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
LINE SPLITS THE CITY OF GRAND FORKS IN HALF. AS SUCH, MINOR
OSCILLATIONS IN THE CLOUD LINE WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR.
REGARDLESS, CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO MVFR AND IFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES, LINGERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN
12Z-00Z, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST,
PRIMARILY AS SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A TRANSITION ZONE. WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE
IS DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME, THE SITES
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR FZRA/PL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
(GREATER THAN 3 HOURS) ARE GFK/DVL/TVF WITH A SHORTER PERIOD AT
BJI DUE TO A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.
FAR MAY SEE FZRA AS WELL, BUT IT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON IF THEY
GET PRECIPITATION AT ALL. IF FAR GETS PRECIPITATION, EXPECT
PRIMARILY FZRA AND PL AS SNOW WILL HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE DOWN
THERE.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z, BUT IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
IMPROVEMENTS MAY ARISE BY 06Z, HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR
THIS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...PERROUX
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