896
FXUS63 KFGF 041019
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
419 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL BRING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE
TO PARK RAPIDS. FURTHER SOUTH, IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
WILL BE MORE PATCHY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THIS
MORNING. NEAR SURFACE SATURATION, UP TO ROUGHLY 850MB, IS SUPPORTING
MIST AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TRAVEL IMPACTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY
MIX TO THOSE AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEMS ALONG THE FLOW; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING EXACT DETAILS. AT THIS TIME, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER
IMPACTS NEXT WEEKEND.
..WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TODAY
A DRY LAYER FROM 850MB TO AROUND 700MB WILL SERVE TO HOLD
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST LATER THIS MORNING, WHEN THAT
LAYER SATURATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX.
CAMS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP IS ABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE, DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES UPWARDS
OF 0.70 INCH. AT THIS TIME, AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO PARK RAPIDS LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.02" TO 0.05" FOR MANY AREAS NORTH OF THE LINE. AREAS
FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS, SHOULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX THAT FAVORS SNOW AS THE COLD LAYER REMAINS A BIT
DEEPER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
TVF AND BJI SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE BEGINNING 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH FAR AND DVL SITTING AT MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH 12Z. GFK WILL BE IN THE IN BETWEEN AREA WHERE THE CLOUD
LINE SPLITS THE CITY OF GRAND FORKS IN HALF. AS SUCH, MINOR
OSCILLATIONS IN THE CLOUD LINE WILL BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR.
REGARDLESS, CEILINGS WILL EVENTUALLY FALL TO MVFR AND IFR FOR
ALL TAF SITES, LINGERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. BETWEEN
12Z-00Z, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST,
PRIMARILY AS SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE AND FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF A TRANSITION ZONE. WHERE THIS TRANSITION ZONE
IS DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME, THE SITES
WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR FZRA/PL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS
(GREATER THAN 3 HOURS) ARE GFK/DVL/TVF WITH A SHORTER PERIOD AT
BJI DUE TO A QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.
FAR MAY SEE FZRA AS WELL, BUT IT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON IF THEY
GET PRECIPITATION AT ALL. IF FAR GETS PRECIPITATION, EXPECT
PRIMARILY FZRA AND PL AS SNOW WILL HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE DOWN
THERE.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z, BUT IFR CEILINGS
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
IMPROVEMENTS MAY ARISE BY 06Z, HOWEVER PREDICTABILITY IS LOW FOR
THIS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT
CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001-002-004-007-008-013>017-022>024-
027-028.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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