206
FXUS63 KFGF 041739
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL BRING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND LIGHT
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE AREA STARTING LATE THIS MORNING. TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM DEVILS LAKE
TO PARK RAPIDS. FURTHER SOUTH, IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT
WILL BE MORE PATCHY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1020 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LEADING TO LOW
LEVEL SATURATION, WITH ENOUGH FORCING IN THAT LAYER TO SUPPORT
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF WHERE THE MAIN AREAS OF WINTRY
MIX ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK TODAY. UPSTREAM ASOS AT JMS (ICE
SENSOR) AND ROAD REPORTS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ALIGN WITH
THIS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER PERSISTING
AND EXPANDING EAST WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE, SO WHILE THE WINTRY
MIX WHERE CAMS SUPPORT ACCUMULATING SLEET/SNOW (SOME FREEZING
RAIN) ARE NORTH FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG ARE GOING TO
CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR AREAS SOUTH. CONFIDENCE DOES DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS LARGER SCALE FORCING WEAKENS, THOUGH
PERSISTENT SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY STILL KEEP FOG AND
POCKETS OF FREEZING MIST AROUND THROUGH MIDNIGHT (MAYBE A LITTLE
LONGER).
I WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO COVER THE
SLICK TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/MIST IN
COUNTIES NOT ALREADY IN AN ADVISORY. WE CAN ADJUST PRODUCTS IF
NECESSARY AS CONDITIONS EITHER IMPROVE LATER OR EXPAND IF AREAS
FZDZ PERSISTS TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
VERY WARM AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THIS
MORNING. NEAR SURFACE SATURATION, UP TO ROUGHLY 850MB, IS SUPPORTING
MIST AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TRAVEL IMPACTS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. HEADING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY
MIX TO THOSE AREAS. AT THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS LOOK UNLIKELY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AS H5 RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ALONG WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN
PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEMS ALONG THE FLOW; HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING EXACT DETAILS. AT THIS TIME, IT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WINTER
IMPACTS NEXT WEEKEND.
..WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION TODAY
A DRY LAYER FROM 850MB TO AROUND 700MB WILL SERVE TO HOLD
PRECIPITATION AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST LATER THIS MORNING, WHEN THAT
LAYER SATURATES ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WINTRY MIX.
CAMS SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH PRECIP IS ABLE TO
REACH THE SURFACE, DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY HIGH PW VALUES UPWARDS
OF 0.70 INCH. AT THIS TIME, AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO PARK RAPIDS LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
PRECIP REACHING THE SURFACE. POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.02" TO 0.05" FOR MANY AREAS NORTH OF THE LINE. AREAS
FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS, SHOULD SEE A
WINTRY MIX THAT FAVORS SNOW AS THE COLD LAYER REMAINS A BIT
DEEPER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS A SYSTEM BRINGS A
WINTERY MIXING TO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REMAINS IN NORTHEAST AND AND THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR (AND NORTH) OF MN WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE AWAY FROM THIS MAIN AXIS STILL RESULTING IN
LOWERED VIS AND LIGHT ICING (GLAZE). THE BEST WINDOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST. IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
(GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF VLIFR). IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A
RETURN TO VFR IS LOW CONSIDERING THE PATTERN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ001>004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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