643
FXUS63 KFGF 042053 CCA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL BRING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLICK TRAVEL AND
LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
- A STRONG SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND, AND SOME SCENARIOS BRING A CHANCE FOR
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS TO PARTS OF THE REGION. THERE ARE
STILL A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS, THUS THOSE PLANNING
TRAVEL SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
PROGRESSIVE/WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND THE CURRENT MID LEVEL WAVE BRINGING A
WINTRY MIX TO PARTS OF OUR CWA, AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER QUICK MOVING
WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND
TO VARY DAILY, BUT TEND TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN AS LARGER SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPS AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED WINTER ACTIVITY TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN US NEXT
WEEKEND, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SEASONABLE/COLDER AIR BY NEXT
WEEK.
..WINTRY MIX/SLICK TRAVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE IS STILL JUST NOW TRACKING OVER OUR
CWA, WITH LIGHT RETURNS ROTATING OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN.
DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT AT TIMES LIMITING ICE INTRODUCTION AND
WAA/WARM NOSE WHERE THE LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER IS IN PLACE
P=TYPES REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE. EVEN WHERE LESS ORGANIZED AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE TRACKING, LOW LEVELS HAVE BEEN SATURATED ENOUGH AT
TIMES TO SUPPORT FREEZING MIX/LIGHT DRIZZLE. A DRIER NEAR SURFACE
LAYER HAS DELAYED IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST
CENTRAL MN, HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY MOVING FROM THE WEST SHOULD MOVE
THORUGH THOSE AREAS AND RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX AND BASED
ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
ULTIMATELY, WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER SATURATED LOW LEVELS ARE SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY BE MORE OF A
FOG/STRATUS SIGNAL AS THE DEPTH OF SATURATION DOES BEGIN TO
DECREASE. FOR NOW WE ARE HOLDING THE WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WILL ADJUST BASED ON TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
..FREEZING RAIN/SLICK TRAVEL POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY
ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE AREA SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, WITH STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE
GENERAL TRACK BEING JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA AND INTO CENTRAL MN,
THOUGH THERE REMAINS MORE SPREAD ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/AMOUNTS.
HREF SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR MEASURABLE FREEZING RAIN IN WEST CENTRAL MN
AS THIS PASSES TO THE SOUTH (BACKED BY MODEL SOUNDING ANALYSIS) AND
HREF FRAM MEAN FIELDS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 0.1" WHERE PRECIPITATION
TRACKS (OUTLIERS IN CAMS SHOW SOME VALUES 0.25"+ JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST). COVERAGE COULD STILL BE A QUESTION MARK AND IT IS A
NARROW PART OF OUR CWA WHERE THIS SIGNAL OVERLAPS. WE'LL BE KEEPING
AN EYE ON THIS PROGRESSIVE WAVE AFTER THE CURRENT SYSTEM PASSES OUR
REGION TONIGHT.
..WINTER STORM POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND
THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS ON A LARGER SCALE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN US, WITH
A NEGATIVELY TITLED AXIS LEADING TO A COLORADO-LOW TYPE PATTERN
DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THERE IS STILL HIGH RUN-RUN
VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH PATTERN AND EVENTUAL
SURFACE LOW TRACK/TIMING.
A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR SCENARIOS THAT KEEP THE
STRONGEST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM AND LOW TRACK FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST, LIMITING IMPACTS IN EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST
MN. IN THOSE SCENARIOS THE DRIER/NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH DOMINATES. WHILE THERE COULD STILL BE AN ARCTIC
FRONT PASSAGE OR MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA, IMPACTS
ARE LESS PRONOUNCED AND THE PROBABILITY FOR WARNING IMPACTS
WOULD BE MUCH LOWER.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SCENARIOS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT DEEPEN THE LOW
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST PLACING OUR CWA NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH
AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE. THESE ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW RATES/TOTALS OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA (VARYING
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS). THE NORTHERN LOW POSITION ALSO WOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR STRONGER GRADIENT AND WINDS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE MORE IMPACTFUL SCENARIOS ARE IN THE
MINORITY (10% CHANCE) AND AT THIS RANGE A LOT CAN CHANGE.
STILL, IT IS WORTH MONITOR TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS A SYSTEM BRINGS A
WINTERY MIXING TO EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REMAINS IN NORTHEAST AND AND THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR (AND NORTH) OF MN WITH AREAS OF FOG AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE AWAY FROM THIS MAIN AXIS STILL RESULTING IN
LOWERED VIS AND LIGHT ICING (GLAZE). THE BEST WINDOW FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
A CHANCE THAT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE
EVENING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES EAST. IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
PREVAIL WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
(GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR WITH A FEW POCKETS OF VLIFR). IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY MORNING, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN A
RETURN TO VFR IS LOW CONSIDERING THE PATTERN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
MNZ001>004-007-008-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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