457
FXUS63 KFGF 051019
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
419 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LIKELY TO LAST IN MANY AREAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
- 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
- WINTER STORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND TIED TO HOW TWO 500 MB
WAVES MERGE. RIGHT NOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
..FOG TODAY/TONIGHT
HRRR AND CONSHORT IS HANDLING THE FOG PRETTY WELL, AT LEAST THE
AREAS WITH MORE DENSE FOG. IT IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AT LEAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON THAT FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS TODAY ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE EAST EDGE OF LOW CLOUD CLEARING IS MASKED
BY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT FROM OBSERVATIONS THE LOW CLOUD TO HIGH
CLOUD LAYER RUNS ABOUT TOWNER ND WEST OF RUGBY SOUTH TO WEST OF
JAMESTOWN TO NEAR OAKES THEN TO WEST OF WATERTOWN SD. I
ANTICIPATE ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
EASTWARD TODAY LIKELY STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST THRU E ND INTO THE RRV THOUGH THE
DENSE FOG AS SO FAR STAYED WEST OF GFK/FAR AND WEST OF
WAHPETON. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADV AREA AND DID
ADD IN A STRIP OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY INCL LISBON AND
GWINNER/FORMAN DUE TO WEBCAMS AND OBS AT GWINNER AND VALLEY
CITY. DID MENTION IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY STATEMENT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR MIST POSSIBLE.
..FREEZING RAIN CHANCE PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN (AND RAIN) FORMATION THIS EVENING IN AN AREA OF
MINNESOTA IN BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND REDWOOD FALLS, THEN
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND
AREAS JUST NORTH. MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF ICING, BUT USING
WPC QPF AND MORE BULLISH ECMWF AND NAM 12KM IDEA OF KEEPING
HEAVIER ICING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS GOOD, WITH NORTHWEST
EDGE OF ICING POTENTIAL SKIRTING AREAS OF GRANT AND SOUTHERN
OTTER TAIL COUNTIES TO NEAR WADENA AND STAPLES. PROB FOR 0.01
INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA FROM NBM
IS ABOUT 15 PERCENT. THIS FREEZING RAIN AREA TO OUR SOUTH IS
AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THRU FAR
NORTHERN IOWA AND WEAK 850 MB FRONT, WIND COVERGENCE AREA, THERE
IN THAT AREA FROM SOUTH OF ALEXANDRIA TO NEAR THE TWIN CITIES.
AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF ICING IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS UNDER 20 PERCENT SO NO ADVISORY ISSUED AT
THIS TIME. IT WILL BE LOOKED OVER I AM SURE THRU THE DAY TO SEE
ANY CHANGES.
..WINTER STORM POTENTIAL THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WE WILL HAVE A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS A 500 MB WAVE MOVING OUT
OF A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS / MISSOURI OR IOWA BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE THERE IS
AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA AND INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA AT THIS SAME TIME. HOW THESE TWO
INTERACT OR DONT INTERACT WILL BE THE KEY TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST
SCENARIOS FROM MODELS AND OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLES FROM THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS KEEP THE MAIN AXIS OF PROB OF 2 OR 4 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOW LINED UP FROM SIOUX FALLS UP THRU THE TWIN
CITIES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. EURO ENSEMBLES HAS PROB OF 4
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AT LESS THAN 5 PCT IN WEST CENTRAL MN
SATURDAY WITH GEFS SHOWING AROUND 15 PCT CHANCE. NBM 07Z DATA
SHOWING PROBS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL AT 20 PCT.
SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE. SFC LOW DOES SEEM TO FAVOR A LOCATION
PRETTY FAR EAST AND THUS WINDS AS PROGGED DONT LOOK OVERLY
STRONG IN OUR AREA, SO SNOW IS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF
MERGED UPPER LOW.
00Z ECMWF AI MODEL HAS SHOWN THE MOST SNOW POTENTIAL OF ANY
OPERATIONAL MODEL WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL OF 4 INCHES INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN...PROBS NOT GIVEN, BUT ITS SNOWFALL IS INDICATING 4
INCHES FERGUS, PARK RAPIDS.
WPC WSSI-P SHOWS PROBABILITY OF MINOR (ADVISORY) IMPACTS 10-20
PERCENT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST FCST AREA WITH PROBS FOR MAJOR
(WARNING) IMPACTS LESS THAN 5 PCT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BRINGING VISIBILITY DOWN
TO IFR AND LIFR. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 12Z TOMORROW, BUT THE
LOW CEILINGS THAT ARE ONGOING RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IFR
TO LIFR. GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS THROUGH PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE DAY
TOMORROW WITH EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD VERY LATE. FREEZING RAIN MAY GET CLOSE TO FAR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE BULK OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-054.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ049-052.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...PERROUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page