794
FXUS63 KFGF 051600
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG LIKELY TO LAST IN MANY AREAS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS
OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING.
- 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
- A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR GREATER
IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EASTWARD INTO THIS
AREA. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY, FOG WILL PERSIST, AND THEN
EXPAND/THICKEN INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING HOW
DEEP WE SATURATE, POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD ALSO
DEVELOP. HOW TO HANDLE FOG AND DRIZZLE HEADLINES WILL BE THE
QUESTION OF THE DAY AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
FOG IS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. BUT THE COVERAGE OF DENSE
FOG CONTINUES TO SHRINK AT LEAST ACCORDING TO OBSERVATIONS. BUT
NOT ABOUT TO START GETTING RID OF COUNTIES ONLY FOR THEM TO GO
DOWN AGAIN IN FOG. I STILL ANTICIPATE FOG OF VARYING
VISIBILITIES TO REMAIN MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT AND MAY
GO DENSE AGAIN IF CONSHORT OR NBM IS RIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..FOG TODAY/TONIGHT
HRRR AND CONSHORT IS HANDLING THE FOG PRETTY WELL, AT LEAST THE
AREAS WITH MORE DENSE FOG. IT IS LIKELY DUE TO VERY LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AT LEAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON THAT FOG WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS TODAY ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. THE EAST EDGE OF LOW CLOUD CLEARING IS MASKED
BY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT FROM OBSERVATIONS THE LOW CLOUD TO HIGH
CLOUD LAYER RUNS ABOUT TOWNER ND WEST OF RUGBY SOUTH TO WEST OF
JAMESTOWN TO NEAR OAKES THEN TO WEST OF WATERTOWN SD. I
ANTICIPATE ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
EASTWARD TODAY LIKELY STAYING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG PERSIST THRU E ND INTO THE RRV THOUGH THE
DENSE FOG AS SO FAR STAYED WEST OF GFK/FAR AND WEST OF
WAHPETON. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADV AREA AND DID
ADD IN A STRIP OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF VALLEY CITY INCL LISBON AND
GWINNER/FORMAN DUE TO WEBCAMS AND OBS AT GWINNER AND VALLEY
CITY. DID MENTION IN DENSE FOG ADVISORY STATEMENT LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR MIST POSSIBLE.
..FREEZING RAIN CHANCE PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT
OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
FREEZING RAIN (AND RAIN) FORMATION THIS EVENING IN AN AREA OF
MINNESOTA IN BETWEEN ALEXANDRIA AND REDWOOD FALLS, THEN
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD THE TWIN CITIES AND
AREAS JUST NORTH. MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF ICING, BUT USING
WPC QPF AND MORE BULLISH ECMWF AND NAM 12KM IDEA OF KEEPING
HEAVIER ICING POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH LOOKS GOOD, WITH NORTHWEST
EDGE OF ICING POTENTIAL SKIRTING AREAS OF GRANT AND SOUTHERN
OTTER TAIL COUNTIES TO NEAR WADENA AND STAPLES. PROB FOR 0.01
INCH OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION IN THIS AREA FROM NBM
IS ABOUT 15 PERCENT. THIS FREEZING RAIN AREA TO OUR SOUTH IS
AIDED BY LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST ALONG THRU FAR
NORTHERN IOWA AND WEAK 850 MB FRONT, WIND CONVERGENCE AREA,
THERE IN THAT AREA FROM SOUTH OF ALEXANDRIA TO NEAR THE TWIN
CITIES. AT THIS TIME THE RISK OF 0.01 INCH OR MORE OF ICING IN
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS UNDER 20 PERCENT SO NO ADVISORY
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE LOOKED OVER I AM SURE THRU THE
DAY TO SEE ANY CHANGES.
..WINTER STORM POTENTIAL THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WE WILL HAVE A SCENARIO WHERE THERE IS A 500 MB WAVE MOVING OUT
OF A TROUGH OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS / MISSOURI OR IOWA BY 12Z SAT. MEANWHILE THERE IS
AN UPPER WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST CANADA AND INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA AT THIS SAME TIME. HOW THESE TWO
INTERACT OR DONT INTERACT WILL BE THE KEY TO HOW FAR NORTHWEST
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL GET INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST
SCENARIOS FROM MODELS AND OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLES FROM THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS KEEP THE MAIN AXIS OF PROB OF 2 OR 4 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOW LINED UP FROM SIOUX FALLS UP THRU THE TWIN
CITIES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. EURO ENSEMBLES HAS PROB OF 4
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AT LESS THAN 5 PCT IN WEST CENTRAL MN
SATURDAY WITH GEFS SHOWING AROUND 15 PCT CHANCE. NBM 07Z DATA
SHOWING PROBS OF MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL AT 20 PCT.
SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE. SFC LOW DOES SEEM TO FAVOR A LOCATION
PRETTY FAR EAST AND THUS WINDS AS PROGGED DONT LOOK OVERLY
STRONG IN OUR AREA, SO SNOW IS MORE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF
MERGED UPPER LOW.
00Z ECMWF AI MODEL HAS SHOWN THE MOST SNOW POTENTIAL OF ANY
OPERATIONAL MODEL WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL OF 4 INCHES INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN...PROBS NOT GIVEN, BUT ITS SNOWFALL IS INDICATING 4
INCHES FERGUS, PARK RAPIDS.
WPC WSSI-P SHOWS PROBABILITY OF MINOR (ADVISORY) IMPACTS 10-20
PERCENT OVER OUR SOUTHEAST FCST AREA WITH PROBS FOR MAJOR
(WARNING) IMPACTS LESS THAN 5 PCT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
IFR, LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THRU 12Z TUESDAY IN
NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AT THE TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDS
IN THE 300 TO 700 FT AGL RANGE IS MORE CERTAIN THAN
VISIBILITIES, WHICH WILL VARY. POCKETS OF 1/4 TO 1/2SM MAY
LINGER AND MOVE AROUND ALL DAY AND/OR RE-FORM TONIGHT. OUTSIDE
OF THESE LOW VSBY AREAS, 3-5SM VSBYS COMMON. LIGHT WINDS ALL
AREAS, UNDER 6 KTS, MAINLY SOUTHERLY TODAY TURNING NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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