807
FXUS63 KFGF 052343
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
543 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
FORECASTED THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR GREATER
IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL US, WITH
OUR FA NEAR ITS APEX. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK WAVES. NONE OF THESE WAVES LOOK TO BE BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS. TOWARDS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US PROPAGATES EAST. THIS IS THE PERIOD
WE ARE WATCHING FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER, BEFORE RIDGING SETS
UP AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US, BRINGING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE FA.
..FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
WAA ADVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LAST EVENING/NIGHT. FOG HAS PERSISTED NEARLY FA WIDE ALL
DAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FOR EXAMPLE, SEVERAL
SITES THAT WERE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AROUND NOON ARE NOW
REPORTING VISIBILITIES DECREASING AGAIN. AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING, FOG WILL QUICKLY SOCK BACK IN AT ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAD
SOME FORM IMPROVEMENT, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL ROAM AROUND, BUT LUCKILY THE DEPTH OF SATURATION WE ARE
WORKING WITH SHOULD KEEP THE DRIZZLE MUCH MORE PATCHY. SINCE
IMPACTS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM FOG, NOT ICING FROM DRIZZLE, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY, A FEW SLIPPERY SURFACES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..WEEKEND SYSTEM
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN THE PANHANDLE REGION OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA LATE THIS WEEK,
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON IF IMPACTS (OR ANY IMPACTS
FOR THAT MATTER) OCCUR. OFF THE BAT, A LOW THAT FAR SOUTH WOULD TEND
TO MAKE A PERSON THINK IMPACTS IN OUR AREA SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED.
HOWEVER, TO COMPLICATE THINGS, ANOTHER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH AROUND THE SAME TIME. WAVE
INTERACTIONS ARE ALWAYS A FORECAST HEADACHE THAT CARRY A SHORTER
PREDICTABILITY HORIZON, AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. IF THESE
WAVES WERE TO INTERACT, A STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WOULD
EVOLVE, BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A SCENARIO LIKE THIS (10 TO 20 PERCENT OR SO OF MEMBERS).
WITH SUCH LITTLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND A WIDE POTENTIAL
RANGE OF SCENARIOS, VERY FEW DETAILS CAN BE PROVIDED, SO CHECK BACK
FOR UPDATES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIFR TO VLIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY DUE TO A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE AND TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS CLEARING
IN CENTRAL ND, HOWEVER UNTIL LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TUESDAY TO
THE WEST BRINGING DRIER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE REGION
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE (BETTER CHANCES
FOR IMPROVEMENT AT KDVL TONIGHT). EVENTUALLY THIS DRIER WESTERLY
FLOW IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND EVEN INTO
NORTHWEST MN, AND A PERIOD OF VFR IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD IN ND. CONFIDENCE IN VFR IS LOWER IN NORTHWEST MN
AND MVFR MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER BEFORE IFR REBUILDS TUESDAY
NIGHT NEAR THOSE TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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