481
FXUS63 KFGF 060526
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
FORECASTED THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL OR GREATER
IMPACTS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
THE SHIFT IN BL FLOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION IS HELPING
BRING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO CENTRAL ND AND THERE ARE SIGNS OF
MORE CONSISTENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS IS
MATCHING THE LATEST RAP/HRRR WHICH HAVE THIS TREND SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND THROUGH 08-11Z. I CAN SEE ULTIMATELY
ENDING IT EARLY FOR MUCH OF OUR ND COUNTIES IF THE DRIER BL FLOW
CONTINUES EASTWARD TONIGHT AS TRENDS INDICATE. THERE ARE STILL
LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DENSE FOG LINGERING IN OUR NORTHWEST EVEN
WITH THE LARGER AREAS OF IMPROVEMENT, SO FOR NOW I AM KEEPING
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS AND WE CAN ADJUST OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE BECOMING FOR WIDESPREAD IN EASTERN ND AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS EXPANDING INTO NORTHWEST MN.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE 06Z-09Z
PERIOD IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN (SPREADING SOUTHEAST) DUE TO
DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, HOWEVER UNTIL THE ACTUAL SURFACE
PATTERN SHIFTS THIS PERSISTENTLY SOUPY AIR MASS IS MORE LIKELY
TO PERSIST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AFTER 12Z. NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY TO THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY, AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT (SO FAR JUST FOG/FREEZING FOG).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL US, WITH
OUR FA NEAR ITS APEX. THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK WAVES. NONE OF THESE WAVES LOOK TO BE BIG
PRECIPITATION MAKERS. TOWARDS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US PROPAGATES EAST. THIS IS THE PERIOD
WE ARE WATCHING FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER, BEFORE RIDGING SETS
UP AGAIN OVER THE WESTERN US, BRINGING A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW BACK TO THE FA.
..FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT
WAA ADVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE CATALYST FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT LAST EVENING/NIGHT. FOG HAS PERSISTED NEARLY FA WIDE ALL
DAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. FOR EXAMPLE, SEVERAL
SITES THAT WERE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT AROUND NOON ARE NOW
REPORTING VISIBILITIES DECREASING AGAIN. AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING, FOG WILL QUICKLY SOCK BACK IN AT ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAD
SOME FORM IMPROVEMENT, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL ROAM AROUND, BUT LUCKILY THE DEPTH OF SATURATION WE ARE
WORKING WITH SHOULD KEEP THE DRIZZLE MUCH MORE PATCHY. SINCE
IMPACTS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
FROM FOG, NOT ICING FROM DRIZZLE, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE
FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD REMAIN PATCHY, A FEW SLIPPERY SURFACES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
..WEEKEND SYSTEM
WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES IN THE PANHANDLE REGION OF TEXAS/OKLAHOMA LATE THIS WEEK,
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON IF IMPACTS (OR ANY IMPACTS
FOR THAT MATTER) OCCUR. OFF THE BAT, A LOW THAT FAR SOUTH WOULD TEND
TO MAKE A PERSON THINK IMPACTS IN OUR AREA SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED.
HOWEVER, TO COMPLICATE THINGS, ANOTHER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH AROUND THE SAME TIME. WAVE
INTERACTIONS ARE ALWAYS A FORECAST HEADACHE THAT CARRY A SHORTER
PREDICTABILITY HORIZON, AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. IF THESE
WAVES WERE TO INTERACT, A STRONGER SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH WOULD
EVOLVE, BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING A SCENARIO LIKE THIS (10 TO 20 PERCENT OR SO OF MEMBERS).
WITH SUCH LITTLE MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND A WIDE POTENTIAL
RANGE OF SCENARIOS, VERY FEW DETAILS CAN BE PROVIDED, SO CHECK BACK
FOR UPDATES AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LIFR TO VLIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG CONTINUE OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN AT THE
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER WEST-NORTHEST FLOW IS ARRIVING
AND SPREADING EAST FROM CENTRAL ND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION, AND THIS SHOULD HELP TREND CONDITIONS BACK TOWARDS
IFR AND EVEN MVFR ACROSS EASTERN ND IN THE 08-12Z PERIOD AND
EVENTUALLY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO BE
SLOWER TO IMPROVE IN NORTHWEST MN, AND WHILE MVFR EVENTUALLY
PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR IFR TO
START TO REDEVELOP LATE TUESDAY EVENING/TUESDAY NIGHT IN MN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-
009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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